🚨【In-depth Analysis】SMIC: Survival Rules and Golden Pit Hunting Manual under the 'Guillotine' of Moving Averages📉

📢 Foreword: Don't Be Held Hostage by Emotions, Understand the Market's Script
The semiconductor sector has recently pulled back from highs, with a lot of market noise. Some talk about geopolitics (US restrictions), others talk about domestic substitution (the long-term logic remains unchanged). But as technical traders, we believe in one thing: K-line charts are the footprints left by capital, and volume is the breath of major players.

Currently, $SMIC(00981.HK) has fallen below the MA60 "bull-bear dividing line," and the RSI has entered the oversold zone. This week (2.9-2.13), we are about to witness a classic game of "luring bulls - killing panic - changing hands."

🌏 Macro and Fundamental Coordinates
Currently, the global semiconductor industry is at the tail end of the inventory destocking cycle, but the recovery is uneven. As a leader in mature processes, SMIC faces huge CAPEX (capital expenditure), and depreciation pressure remains. Major funds have already completed phased distribution at high levels (75-80 HKD). The current decline is a "gravity correction" (Mean Reversion).

🎢 This Week's Plot Prediction: A Script from a High-Frequency Quant Perspective

Based on momentum indicators and chip distribution, this week's trend is highly likely to show a "N-shaped decline" structure:

1️⃣ First Half of the Week: Bull Trap 🎣

Timing: Monday, Tuesday
Technical Logic: Due to excessive divergence, the K-line needs a correction. There might be a rapid surge in the morning session, attempting to pull back to the 5-day moving average (around 69.30).
⚠️ Warning: Don't mistake a "dead cat bounce" for a reversal! This is technical resistance by major players to maintain their selling price. A low-volume rebound is just a bluff. Hitting the resistance level (69.5-70.0) is an exit opportunity, not an entry point.

2️⃣ Mid-Week: The Plot Thickens (Liquidity Sweep) 🗡️

Timing: Wednesday
Technical Logic: After the pullback ends, the trapped positions above (with the MA10 death cross pointing down) will form an overwhelming pressure. Major players will likely use some intraday news to drive the price down, breaking through the support level from early in the week.

3️⃣ Second Half of the Week: Sentiment Flushing and the Golden Pit (Capitulation) 💎

Timing: Friday Afternoon (Key Window)
Technical Logic: The so-called "no break, no establishment." When retail investors are completely desperate and panic selling (Panic Selling) floods the market, that's when smart money (Smart Money) steps in to pick up blood-stained chips. We predict that in the 63.80-65.00 range, a high-probability "left-side structure" will form.

⚔️ Operation Manual: Respect Risk, Go with the Flow

🛡️ Holders (Passive Defense):
Use the surge opportunities on Monday/Tuesday to decisively reduce positions and day trade. Do not average down in a downtrend; that's catching a falling knife!
🔫 Those with No Positions (Sniper Mode):
Keep your hands off until Thursday! Don't be tempted even by an intraday rebound.
*Key Monitor Friday!** If there is a high-volume sharp drop + long lower shadow, that's a signal of institutional entry. You can try to bet on a weekend news-driven reversal.

⚠️ Left-Side Trading · Highest Risk Warning ⚠️

Left-side bottom fishing = catching a falling knife. Although we predict a high probability of reversal on Friday, the market is always right.
Position control is key. The trial-and-error position for left-side trading must be strictly controlled within 20%. Only when the stock price stands above the 5-day line again and confirms support is it the right-side point to add to the position.
Ironclad Stop-Loss Rule. If it effectively breaks below the 62.00 integer level, it indicates an acceleration of the downtrend. You must unconditionally stop-loss and exit. Refuse to hold on stubbornly!

🧠 Conclusion:
Trading is not about predicting the future, but about preparing for various possible scripts. The theme of this week is "patience". Let the bullets fly a little longer. Wait for the weak chips to leave the market. That's when it's our time to enter.