$Micron Tech(MU.US) Interpretation of the short article "Micron's supply share in Nvidia's Rubin HBM drops to zero"

1. The partnership between Micron and Nvidia (officially confirmed)

Micron Technology (MU.US) is indeed a core HBM supplier for Nvidia (NVDA.US), and their collaboration has clear official records:

Micron's HBM3E is already in mass production and supplies Nvidia's H200, B200, B300, and other Blackwell series GPUs, which was confirmed in Micron's official press release in March 2025.

Micron also collaborated with Nvidia to develop SOCAMM (Small Compression Attached Memory Module), specifically designed for Nvidia's AI server platform, and has already begun mass production and shipment.

In other words: The collaboration between Micron and Nvidia in the HBM field is real and not a complete absence of a supply relationship.

2. The specific meaning of "Rubin HBM share drops to zero"

This statement comes from a report by the industry analysis firm SemiAnalysis. Its core point is:

In Nvidia's next-generation Rubin (HBM4) platform, there are currently no signs of Nvidia procuring HBM from Micron, hence Micron's share in that platform is temporarily adjusted down to 0.

It is expected that Nvidia's HBM4 supply will be concentrated with SK Hynix (~70%) and Samsung (~30%).

However, it's important to note:

This is a forecast for the next-generation Rubin platform (HBM4) and does not affect Micron's supply position in the current Blackwell platform (HBM3E).

Micron has announced it will begin mass production of HBM4 in Q2 2026 and stated that its yield improvement is faster than with HBM3E, leaving future opportunities to enter the Rubin platform supply chain.

3. Interpretation of the stock price fluctuation

This news triggered short-term sentiment volatility in the market, but this is more of an indiscriminate reaction from retail investors lacking the ability to discern industry details:

Micron's core growth engine is its current HBM3E business, not the yet-to-be-mass-produced Rubin platform.

Even if its share in the Rubin platform is initially zero, it will not have a material impact on Micron's 2026-2027 performance, as demand for HBM3E is still experiencing explosive growth.

This kind of emotional volatility is temporary and will ultimately be corrected by the company's fundamentals and long-term industry trends.

Summary

Micron and Nvidia indeed have HBM collaboration: Micron's HBM3E is already supplying Nvidia's current Blackwell series GPUs, which is an officially confirmed fact.

"Supply share drops to zero" is an analytical forecast for the next-generation Rubin (HBM4) platform, not a denial of the existing collaboration.

The market's short-term sentiment volatility is temporary. Micron's core value still lies in its technological leadership in the HBM field and the visibility of its current orders.