Likes ReceivedA pile of positive news over the weekend, is the 'red envelope rally' stable?!
$Shanghai Composite Index sh000001$ This weekend saw a pile-up of positive news emerging one after another: commercial aerospace, chips & semiconductors, gold & non-ferrous metals, each more eye-catching than the last. The online stock trading discussion forums are almost exploding, directly igniting investor enthusiasm.
Everyone actually knows deep down that around the Chinese New Year every year, there's basically a wave of 'New Year red envelope' market action. It serves to give investors a bit of a 'year-end bonus,' stimulate consumption, invigorate the market, and also enhance the festive atmosphere—a clear win-win-win situation. Just thinking about it is exciting.
Looking overseas, the U.S. stock market exploded even more directly on Friday:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke above 50,000 points for the first time, and the Nasdaq surged ahead driven by tech stocks. Especially NVIDIA, which soared over 8%, adding $325 billion in market cap overnight, roughly equivalent to conjuring up another Kweichow Moutai out of thin air. That kind of gain is truly staggering.
Looking back for comparison, the feeling is particularly profound:
Back during the 2008 financial crisis, the Dow was struggling around 8,000 points, and the A-share market was also oscillating around 4,000 points. At least they could still look at each other across the sea.
In the blink of an eye, 18 years have passed. The Dow has directly charged to 50,000 points, while we're still grinding back and forth around 4,000. There's too much to say, and it's hard to put into words. Could it be that our index is destined to be forever '18 years old'?
What's even more interesting is that Trump has spoken up again, saying that before his term ends, the Dow will hit 100,000 points, equivalent to doubling again in the next three years. That certainly sounds exaggerated, but this kind of boldness in making statements and setting expectations is, to be honest, something we really should learn more from.
There was a heap of positive news over the weekend. Much of it has been discussed earlier. The most crucial and substantial news from yesterday mainly falls into two big categories:
I. Continuous Positive News for Commercial Aerospace, Awaiting Capital's Return
1. China successfully launched a reusable experimental spacecraft.
A major reason commercial aerospace had been weak before was that the reuse and recovery aspect hadn't been fully resolved. Now, with the successful test, it means launch costs can be significantly reduced in the future—the first-stage rocket body and engine account for over 70% of the cost. Being able to reuse them could lower costs by at least 40% or more. This is a solid positive for the entire sector.
2. Shanghai has also clearly stated its intention to focus on developing new tracks like smart terminals, commercial aerospace, and the low-altitude economy, aiming to create another trillion-yuan level of industrial growth.
The problem is, commercial aerospace has had almost daily positive news lately, but the stock prices just haven't moved much. It's mainly because the first wave of gains was too strong, exhausting expectations. We can only hope that next week, with capital flowing back, it can stage a proper rebound.
II. The Return of the King: Chips & Semiconductors, Next Week is Crucial
1. The core of Friday's big rally in U.S. stocks was the charge led by chips & semiconductors: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index skyrocketed 5.7%, NVIDIA nearly 8%, Broadcom over 7%, directly maxing out global tech sentiment.
2. There's also a major expectation within the industry: the semiconductor market size is expected to enter the trillion-dollar era for the first time, completely opening up long-term space.
The capital market always follows this rule: when prices rise, all the positive news arrives; when they fall, it's all negative.
Next week, we'll see if the big tech names like Yizhong Tian, Han Wang, and Mo Wang can wake up. As long as these tech blue-chips dare to start moving, the probability of the broader market pulling out a solid positive candle is really quite high.
In short, this weekend, sentiment, news, and external factors are all on the side of the bulls. It's up to the A-share market to prove itself next week and hand out a proper big New Year red envelope to everyone.
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