Red envelope market rally is coming!!

$Shanghai Composite Index sh000001$ The U.S. stock market really exploded on Friday night! Not only did it rebound strongly, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average directly hit a new all-time high, so fierce! 🔥

Previously, in the U.S. tech stock sector, NVIDIA was at risk of breaking out of its consolidation range, looking precarious. Unexpectedly, it reversed directly last Friday night. Tech stocks collectively recovered, and NVIDIA surged by 8%, directly eliminating the breakout risk. This rebound came just in time.

Let's talk about the news over the weekend. It was quite lively, especially the news about Musk, which directly flooded the entire internet, making it hard to miss!

Last week, within the aerospace sector, the most outstanding segment was probably space-based photovoltaics, right? This is absolutely inseparable from Musk's continuous optimism and constant endorsement. With daily news catalysts, this direction is indeed more resilient and less prone to decline compared to other aerospace segments, and its logic is also stronger.

But to be honest, the pre-holiday effect in the current market is really at its peak! The Spring Festival travel rush has already begun. Many friends have already packed their bags and embarked on their journey home. Therefore, the trading volume of the two markets is highly likely to remain low, with little chance of improvement.

If trading volume cannot increase, don't expect the index to have any possibility of breaking upward. It will most likely continue to fluctuate within the current consolidation range. In this situation, the market will definitely continue its chaotic rotation rhythm. So, it's better for us to maintain a more relaxed mindset, not be too impatient. Chasing rallies and selling on dips is easy to fall into traps.

In terms of directions, focus on two: one is the space-based photovoltaics mentioned before, and the other is the computing power-related topics that went viral over the weekend, like AI models such as Qianwen and Doubao, as well as segments like computing power leasing and CDN, all have news catalysts.

However, a reminder is necessary: themes that gain traction over the weekend may not necessarily perform well in the current weak market environment. The key is to see if, after the market opens on Monday and a wave of divergence is digested, it can transition from divergence to consensus. If it collapses directly after divergence, then this theme is hopeless. Only if it can withstand the divergence and strengthen again does it have participation value.

Therefore, for Monday's operations, don't be greedy. At most, look for the core leading stocks in these two directions with the strongest expectations to see if there are comfortable low-entry opportunities. Low-frequency operations and focusing on low-entry are sufficient. If no low-entry opportunities are given, decisively give up. Don't force entry. A forced melon isn't sweet, and forced chasing of highs will likely lead to being trapped.

Furthermore, with the U.S. stock rebound and so many news stimuli over the weekend, the probability of a higher opening for the main board on Monday is still quite high. But combined with the current low volume and pre-holiday effect, don't expect a high-open, high-close pattern. Overall, expectations shouldn't be too high; it will most likely be dominated by fluctuations.

Also, regarding post-holiday expectations, it's still too early to position now. Taking an early position before the holiday is usually done on the last trading day before the holiday, following whichever direction suddenly breaks out at that time. Acting urgently now is useless.

Finally, let's analyze the logic of several key sectors and individual stocks to help everyone sort out their thoughts:

1. Computing Power

This market crash, with tech stocks, especially computing hardware, being one of the main culprits, directly experienced a liquidation-style decline. Honestly, the overall valuation of computing hardware is indeed high, making sustained future trends difficult.

But what's different is that computing power itself hadn't risen much before. This round of adjustment has further compressed its already not-high valuation. Therefore, within tech stocks, computing power is highly likely to become the rebound vanguard.

The logical foundation is data centers. In the long run, the ultimate development direction is still quantum computing.

There is also news support: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice to promote the construction of the "1+M+N" national computing power interconnection node system. The University of Science and Technology of China also made a technological breakthrough; a quantum "catcher" can provide new tools for searching for dark matter. Moreover, there is an expectation for quantum technology displays at the Spring Festival Gala's Hefei branch venue.

On Friday, stocks with the word "data" in their names were already the first to hit the daily limit-up. This signal is already very clear, equivalent to an open hand.

2. Commercial Aerospace

This sector has already seen a significant short-term decline. Many stocks have fallen to short-term technical support levels, creating a need for a rebound.

On the news front: On February 7th, China successfully launched a reusable experimental spacecraft at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center using a Long March 2F carrier rocket. Note here: reusable experimental spacecraft ≠ reusable rockets, but it still brought topic heat to the commercial aerospace sector, which had been quiet for a long time. The weekend heat was also decent.

There are two other pieces of news: Hainan Commercial Launch Site No. 2's launch pad conducted the first verification of "four-cylinder" technology, paving the way for larger rocket launches. The U.S. "Falcon 9" rocket was approved to resume flights and will execute a "Dragon" spacecraft crewed launch mission on February 11th, which can also bring some sentiment to the sector.

3. Resource Stocks

Resource stocks have also plummeted recently, especially silver, with a decline exceeding 40%. From a short-term perspective, there is already a need for the decline to stop. It's difficult for the kind of large fluctuations seen before to reappear subsequently.

However, note that silver is no longer suitable for long positions now. Instead, strategic materials like rare earths and copper can be watched for low-entry opportunities. Their long-term upward trend hasn't changed, representing good opportunities.

4. Value Direction

Finally, a reminder: Many directions in the market have great future potential, but there's no need to demand catching every hot spot. Catching a few directions with high certainty and making medium-term allocations is actually more prudent.

For example, real estate is a severely undervalued sector with a medium-term need for a turnaround and recovery. Industries like coal, chemicals, and petroleum have not changed their long-term logic of spiral price increases. Many individual stock prices are still on the floor, similar to the cyclical nature of non-ferrous metals. Focus on finding stocks with good performance and low valuations.

Also, the power grid is a companion track to technology, equivalent to the best substitute, suitable for long-term attention as a strategic allocation.

Besides, directions like brain-computer interfaces and photoresist have low long-term risks and can be tracked continuously. The robotics sector is estimated to have related topic speculation as the Spring Festival Gala approaches. Focus on industry leaders with large market caps and stable performance.