📊 Meituan-W (3690.HK): The 'Spring Effect' in the Deep Zone Has Begun, Key Battle Node Between Bulls and Bears Revealed!

"Don't catch a falling knife when selling pressure is at its peak, but do take the chips when panic selling is exhausted." —— Yinyuan Quantitative Strategy Group

🛠️ I. Current Situation Scan: Extreme Negative Divergence and Kinetic Suppression

Currently, $MEITUAN(03690.HK) has formed an extremely rare negative divergence pattern on the daily chart.

Indicator Resonance: The daily RSI6 has plunged to the extreme oversold zone near 24.5, with the MACD green histogram at the end of its expansion phase.
Structural Analogy: The stock price is now like a ball violently pushed underwater. The bearish force (selling pressure) is still pressing down hard, but the rebound potential energy inside the ball is accumulating exponentially.
Resistance Definition: The MA20 (96.95) above forms a strong magnetic field suppression, but before touching this field, the market needs a "deep squat and jump" action.

⏱️ II. This Week's "First Suppress, Then Rise" Rhythm Forecast (Core Time Window)

We break down this week's game rhythm into four stages: "Luring Shorts, Grinding Bottom, Breaking Through, Climax":

Monday to Tuesday: [Inertial Plunge and Panic Release] 📉
Bearish momentum still has remnants, and the market will retreat by inertia. Especially on Tuesday (February 10), expect rapid intraday plunges, even breaking through the 90 HKD psychological barrier, creating a false breakdown.

Technical Logic: This is to force out the last trapped chips (panic selling release).

Wednesday: [Chip Turnover and Stabilization of Center of Gravity] ↔️
Volatility begins to converge. The K-line is highly likely to close as a doji or small positive line, confirming the effectiveness of bottom support.
Thursday to Friday: [Momentum Shift and Violent Gap Filling] 🚀
This is the week's "Breakthrough Moment". With short-term liquidity injection, bullish momentum will officially take over the battlefield.

Decisive Node: Friday (February 13). If the pit dug at the beginning of the week is deep enough, Friday will see a restorative medium-to-long positive line, directly challenging the gap pressure above.

🏹 III. Four-Dimensional Practical Strategy (Including Left-Side Risk Warning)

1️⃣ Left-Side Ambush Faction (Gambling on Oversold Bounce)

Entry Position: 88.5 - 90.0 HKD range.
⚠️ Risk Warning: Left-side trading is counter-trend gambling, carrying the risk of continued decline!
Position Control: Recommend base position controlled within 30%, with a strict stop-loss set at 87.5 (exit immediately upon break).

2️⃣ Right-Side Follow Faction (Entering After Trend Confirmation)

Entry Point: Breakout with volume above 93.5 HKD (1-hour chart trendline breakout).
Target: First look at 96.5 (moving average pressure), ultimate target 99.0.

3️⃣ Scalping Tactic (Intraday Grid)

Utilize 15-minute K-line bottom divergence, buy low near 90.5, close position near 92.5, fast in and out, no lingering.

💡 Yinyuan Strategy Review Summary

The current sell-off is more like a "tactical clearing" before the bulls' counterattack. The low on Tuesday is highly likely to be this month's golden pit. Remember, in oversold markets, the most dangerous moment is often also the moment with the most attractive risk-reward ratio.

Key Level Review:
📍 Strong Support: 88.5 - 89.0
📍 Strong Resistance: 96.5 - 97.2

Strategy Note: This analysis is based on quantitative kinetic model projections. The market changes rapidly; please be sure to conduct secondary confirmation based on real-time volume signals. Investing involves risks; profits and losses are your own responsibility.