Liang Hong's core viewpoints can be summarized into the following ten points:

$Micron Tech(MU.US) $GIGADEVICE(03986.HK) $LONGSYS(301308.SZ)

1. Performance Review: 2025 was the worst year in the past 11 years, mainly due to operational errors.

• Performance: The average return of the flagship 'Big and Small Bull' series products in 2025 was 12.67%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index (+27.77%) by about 15 percentage points for the first time, marking the worst year for relative returns since 2015.
• Core Failure Cause: It was not a misjudgment of direction, but operational errors. Specifically: 1) Failing to reduce positions in heavily weighted stocks (hardware, pharmaceuticals, stablecoins) when prices were high, leading to significant drawdowns; 2) Exchange rate losses on Hong Kong stocks due to RMB appreciation.

1. Investment Reflection: Long-term thinking led to 'inertia', requiring increased flexibility.

• Root of the Problem: Over-reliance on the model of 'selecting stocks based on long-term logic and holding them long-term' in the past created 'holding inertia', leading to multiple experiences of stock price 'roller coasters' and poor drawdown control.
• Improvement Direction: Will increase flexibility in the future, timely reducing positions in stocks that have risen significantly, avoiding abandoning risk control due to being bound by 'grand narratives'.

1. 2026 Market Outlook: Generally optimistic, expecting the Shanghai Composite Index to strengthen.

• Overall View: Holds an optimistic attitude towards the 2026 market. The market performance at the beginning of the year (Shanghai Composite hitting a ten-year high) aligns with his expectation of an 'upward market in the Double Fire Horse Year'.
• Index View: Particularly bullish on the Shanghai Composite Index, believing that if the low-priced cyclical stocks he favors strengthen, breaking through 5000 or 6000 points is not difficult.

1. Core Allocation Strategy: Balanced allocation of 'Technology Offense' + 'Anti-Involution Defense'.

• Dual Drivers: To avoid excessive volatility, adopts a balanced allocation:
  1. Technology (Offense): Focuses on overseas storage, chip manufacturing, and internet leaders.
  2. Anti-Involution (Defense): Focuses on low-priced, China-priced cyclical stocks, such as panels, chemicals, steel, construction machinery, oil & gas, insurance, etc.

1. Technology Theme: Most bullish on 'Overseas Storage', seeing it as the core demand explosion in the AI era.

• Core Logic: This storage cycle is driven by the demand explosion brought by AI, not a traditional supply cycle. Data center demand for HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and NAND Flash will shift from secondary to primary and remain tight.
• Valuation Judgment: Despite the stock price increase, based on 2026 earnings estimates, the P/E ratio of leading overseas storage companies remains in the single digits, making valuations attractive.
• Operation Strategy: Will operate flexibly, 'reducing positions when prices rise too much', avoiding heavy positions on a roller coaster.

1. 'Anti-Involution' Theme: Focuses on low-priced, China-priced cyclical stocks with optimized supply.

• Core Logic: Seeks sectors where stock prices are low, industry structure has been optimized after fierce competition, capital expenditure has decreased, and free cash flow has improved.
• Typical Examples: The panel industry, which has formed a monopoly structure after consolidation, has great elasticity if prices rise; also bullish on chemicals, steel, construction machinery, etc.
• Purpose: Low downside risk, upside elasticity, effectively balancing portfolio volatility.

1. Specific Bullish Sectors: Besides technology and anti-involution, explicitly mentions insurance and high-end domestic cars.

• Insurance: Most bullish among banks, insurance, and brokerages. Benefits from the interest rate environment, a bullish capital market, and the shift of household savings, leading to strong policy sales.
• High-end Domestic Cars: Bullish on the substitution logic of domestic luxury car brands, believing that leading companies can navigate industry cycles with product strength (success of first sedan, larger potential for subsequent MPV/SUV) and have vast market cap potential.

1. Major Risk Warning: Beware of bubbles in small-cap and pseudo-tech stocks.

• Explicit Warning: There are structural risks in the current market. Many small-cap stocks (CSI 2000 constituents) have P/E ratios as high as 70-80x, and some 'pseudo-tech stocks' have valuations severely detached from fundamentals.
• View: Stock prices in these sectors are already at levels equivalent to the Shanghai Composite at 6000 or 8000 points. Bubbles may burst at any time, requiring high vigilance to avoid buying at highs and being trapped long-term.

1. Portfolio Structure: Historic shift, US stock allocation ranks first for the first time.

• Allocation Distribution: Current allocation is US stocks >40%, A-shares >30%, Hong Kong stocks 20%-30%.
• Historic Change: This is a historic shift. Previously, Hong Kong stocks were always the largest holding market. Increasing US stock allocation is mainly based on individual stock valuation and certainty considerations (e.g., valuations of leading overseas storage companies are significantly lower than domestic expectation targets).

1. Key Discussion Points: Responding to hot topics, clearly stating no participation in concept speculation.

• On Commercial Aerospace: Started following late, will not participate at this stage, believing most belong to theme speculation based on grand narratives.
• On Hardware Stocks: Already adjusted positions due to cost pressures (storage price increases) and weak consumption, selling price was not the highest but above current price, long-term logic remains bullish but waiting for cost pressure relief after 2026.
• On Quant: Core remains subjective stock picking, the quant team mainly serves multi-asset strategies, having little impact on his subjective stock picking.
  Summary:
  The core of Liang Hong's discussion is 'Reflection and Reconstruction'. Based on candid reflection on the operational errors in 2025 caused by 'long-term inertia', he proposed the 'Balanced Restart' strategy for 2026: capturing the AI industry wave with 'Technology Growth' (especially overseas storage), obtaining steady elasticity with 'Anti-Involution Cycles', and strictly controlling drawdowns through 'reducing positions at highs, focusing on lows'. Simultaneously, he clearly pointed out the 'structural bubble risk' in the market and demonstrated the practical adjustment of tilting the portfolio towards 'US stocks'. The overall thinking reflects a tactical evolution from 'obsession with long-term narratives' to 'respecting market volatility, balancing offense and defense'.