📉 Meituan: A 'Golden Pit' Under Extreme Pressure? One Chart to Understand the 'Deep Squat' Logic of Main Funds 🛠️
📊 【Core View】: If we ignore the price and only look at the indicators, the current market setup is like a rubber band stretched to its limit. The 88 HKD defense battle is not the end, but a turning point in the sentiment cycle.
🌪️ 1. Market Status: "Garbage Time" for Sentiment Dumping? No, It's Hunting Season!
$MEITUAN(03690.HK) The K-line has been in a one-sided downtrend for two consecutive days, directly breaking through the 90 HKD integer level. Many see panic, but technical traders see opportunity:
- RSI Extreme Oversold: The daily RSI6 has broken below the 20 threshold (value around 18.5), which is an extremely rare "oversold signal". Historical backtesting shows that this level of deviation usually accompanies a retaliatory **Mean Reversion**.
- Loose Holdings: The intraday chart shows a high-volume sell-off in the morning session, which is a typical Capitulation. Major players are creating a liquidity crunch to force out the last panic sellers.
📅 2. Scenario Projection: This Week's "N-Shaped" Recovery Path
Based on multi-cycle momentum indicators and volatility models, this week is highly likely to follow a rhythm of "bottoming out - grinding - rebound":
- 🟥 First Half of the Week (Mon/Tue): Maximum Pressure (Current Phase)
- Technical Profile: Deviation rate correction. The market continues its downward inertia, testing strong support below.
- Subtext: This is the "darkest hour". Major players are using sentiment to compress the spring to its lowest point. Today's sell-off is to create room for a rebound.
- 🟨 Mid-Week (Wed): Long-Short Rebalancing
- Technical Profile: Momentum exhaustion. A low-volume doji or small positive candle is expected, with the KDJ indicator beginning to attempt a golden cross after flattening at low levels.
- 🟩 Second Half of the Week (Thu/Fri): Counterattack Time
- Technical Profile: Value regression. Once the bottom support is confirmed as effective, the accumulated buying momentum will be released in a concentrated manner.
- Key Target: Aiming directly at the upper gap and the MA20 pressure level (around 94-95 range).
⚔️ 3. Trading Strategy: The "Dance on the Knife's Edge" for Left-Side Traders
⚠️ High-Energy Warning: The market is still in a bearish alignment, and left-side trading (catching falling knives) carries extremely high risk. Please strictly adhere to the following discipline:
- 📍 Sniper Zone: 88.00 - 88.50 HKD. This is a support zone where multiple technical indicators resonate.
- 🛡️ Position Control: Inverted Pyramid Averaging Method. Never go all-in at once! It is recommended to first establish a base position (Ant Warehouse 🐜), and only add to the position on the right side after a 15-minute level bullish divergence is confirmed.
- 🛑 Stop-Loss Red Line: Must exit if it effectively breaks below 88.0 to prevent a prolonged, slow decline.
💡 Hardcore Summary:
Just like pressing a ball into water, the deeper you press, the stronger the rebound. The current decline is building up energy for the rally in the second half of the week. Be patient, don't die in the night before the dawn. ☕️
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