Low-volume market, consolidating sideways!

$Shanghai Composite Index sh000001$ Honestly, the market was weak today, but after a big surge yesterday, being able to hold a red (positive) and sideways movement today is already considered strong consolidation!

With the long holiday approaching, major capital is basically holstered and resting, relying entirely on existing funds to churn back and forth.

Now the market has only one characteristic:
Strong index → More stocks fall than rise (capital flocks to large caps)
Weak index → Capital runs to play thematic stocks
The most comfortable script: Heavyweights set the stage, thematic stocks perform. Unfortunately, that didn't play out today.

The market truth is harsh:
Afraid to buy when it falls, chasing to buy when it rises, can't hold on but reluctant to sell, getting beaten back and forth and not making money.
Talking about holding stocks through the holiday, but when it really rallies, everyone runs faster than anyone; those that haven't risen much are passively held, with a steadier mindset.

Morning summary: 8 words — Boring oscillation, volume kneels first

Trading volume directly down 55 billion in the first half hour
Main capital net outflow of hundreds of billions
Index red but "lacking confidence", yesterday's momentum completely drained
Number of rising and falling stocks barely balanced，赚钱效应明显降温

Style playing seesaw:
Shanghai market heavyweights barely support the index, thematic stocks drag it down;
Shenzhen market heavyweights and thematic stocks both weak, neither can lift the other.
Every time the index lifts its head, it gets pushed back down by lack of volume, typical pre-holiday fatigue syndrome.

Hot spots: The entire market relies solely on the single seedling of AI applications

Catalyzed by ByteDance's new model, film/TV, media, AIGC directly exploded, leaders like Hengdian Films surged.
But this precisely exposes the problem:
Capital only clusters in this one direction; commercial aerospace, consumption, real estate are all bleeding!
Only one spotlight in the dance hall, the rest is dark. The fun is theirs, others have nothing.

Why so "weak"?
Chinese New Year is coming, people's minds are scattered, the team is hard to lead.
Big capital seeks stability, not charging ahead. Even with the supportive news of RMB exchange rate breaking 6.90, it can only be stuck — no new money, a clever housewife can't cook without rice.

How will the afternoon go? I think:

1. Index lies flat, oscillating
Big rise or fall is difficult. The Shanghai index will do push-ups around the opening price, with minimal up/down room, volume continues to shrink.
2. Stock divergence intensifies
Front-runners in AI applications may stay strong, but followers should beware of highs and retreats;
Sectors without capital continue to drift lower, don't take small rebounds seriously.
3. Biggest watchpoint: Can the style switch?
Heavyweights stabilize and rest, letting tech themes rotate → sentiment can be maintained.
Heavyweights forcefully pull the index → thematic stocks bleed more severely → market looks worse.

Operation strategy: Remember three "don'ts"

1. Don't chase highs
Especially stocks that have risen consecutively in AI, many already saw highs and retreats this morning. Chasing again in the afternoon risks being stuck at the peak.
2. Don't go heavy
Pre-holiday thin market, keep position at a level that lets you enjoy the holiday peacefully, don't let holdings affect your mood.
3. Don't move recklessly
Chicken rib market, frequent stock switching = getting beaten from both sides.
If the stock is fine, trend not broken, lying flat is better than messing around;
If you want to open a position, only accumulate the main theme on dips, don't chase red (rising) prices.

The afternoon will show: Lie flat together, or find a new position to lie flat～