Likes ReceivedThe overall market is weak!!
$Shanghai Composite Index sh000001$ The index consolidated in a narrow range today, accumulating momentum. The overall market sentiment was weak, but some sectors directly triggered a wave of limit-up stocks.
From a structural perspective, the index is still in the upward breakout phase of a 60-minute box consolidation. This level cannot be rushed. There is resistance from the end of January above, and the yellow and white lines on the daily chart have not yet formed a curved upward turn, so the structure is not solid.
Looking at the 60-minute chart, the gap between the yellow and white lines is still wide. This upward surge hasn't finished, but the internal structure is not strong. Currently, it's a consolidation and accumulation phase after the second wave of gains, and momentum has already weakened somewhat. Without a major positive catalyst to force a rally, it's easy to see a pullback after a surge, triggering volatility.
There are only 3 trading days left before the Spring Festival. The ideal scenario would be:
Continue consolidation on Wednesday and Thursday morning → A small positive close on Thursday → A moderate positive close on Friday. Of course, this is just an ideal script; we just need to follow how the market actually moves.
In terms of operation, I am still patiently holding, waiting for divergence in the uptrend or breakdown in my individual stocks before considering reducing positions. If there is a deep pullback in the next two days, it would instead be an opportunity for foresighted capital to position ahead of time and scramble for shares after the holiday.
Pre-holiday trading will likely be dominated by range-bound volatility. However, there has already been a pullback before the holiday, coupled with improving sentiment, making the post-holiday market very much worth anticipating.
Now let's look at the sectors:
1. AI Applications (Current Main Theme)
The most direct beneficiary of AI is media, further amplified by high expectations for the Spring Festival box office, creating a resonance in news flow.
But note: Tomorrow is the third day of the AI rally, and weaker, peripheral stocks are likely to start diverging.
Today, funds have already overflowed into servers, IDC, and data centers.
The logic is solid: the more AI models compete and the more multimodal they become, the exponential the growth in computing power consumption.
The IDC sector, a very old but golden track, has been reignited.
Another major news item: the mysterious model "Pony Alpha" has exploded online, with multiple sources pointing to Zhipu's GLM-5.
Zhipu's stock hit another new high today, with its market cap approaching three times its IPO level, boosting the entire domestic large language model sector.
Ultimately, the computing power explosion will give rise to quantum technology. Combined with expectations for the Spring Festival Gala, this belongs to an epic tech track. It's still in the incubation phase, not fully commercialized, suitable for medium-term tracking.
2. Aerospace / Aviation
Flight warnings issued for Feb 10-12, indicating imminent rocket recovery operations. But today, all funds were sucked into AI, putting pressure on this sector.
Key watch: If AI diverges tomorrow, will funds flow back into aerospace!
Post-market positive news intensified: Five ministries including the MIIT issued a document supporting the low-altitude economy and communication + low-altitude infrastructure.
Large aircraft were strong in the morning session today but were also siphoned by AI.
As long as AI diverges, the expectation of funds flowing back to this direction is extremely high.
3. Other Key Sectors
Power: Stimulated by power shortages triggered by large-scale overseas data center construction. Focus on gas turbines, compressors.
Photovoltaic Equipment (Strongest Branch of Commercial Aerospace): Normal differentiation today, as expected. It is itself in a volatile uptrend; the commercial aerospace logic isn't over, with continuous catalysts. If it continues to pull back in the next two days, it will present a low-buying, game-theory point.
Resources: The pullback in precious metals this wave has been relatively strong, and sentiment hasn't returned yet. But the geopolitical logic remains, and the long-term trend hasn't changed; it's just that the initiative lies with external factors. It's advised not to overweight, but to diversify into stronger directions like rising-price metals (tungsten) and chemical dyes.
Humanoid Robots: Catalyzed by Beijing's Embodied Intelligence Tiangang 3.0.
With expectations for both a Spring Festival Gala performance and the Tesla V3 release, suitable for light position trial. Focus on: Zhiyuan, Yushu industry chain.
Innovative Drugs: The logic remains unchanged – improved pharmaceutical company financing, BD repayments, R&D investment recovery, and warming CRO/CDMO demand.
The global competitiveness of Chinese innovative drugs continues to improve, with overseas expansion constantly increasing volume. Short-term adjustments do not affect the medium to long term; focus on targets with major BD orders.
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