💢💢💢

🌐📉 Ray Dalio's warning is becoming a real footnote to the US debt cycle.

"Debt problems are often followed by currency devaluation."
This is not an emotional judgment, but a conclusion repeatedly verified by Ray Dalio after studying centuries of sovereign debt cycles.

When the debt scale becomes too large to be digested through growth or fiscal austerity, history almost leaves only one path:
Using financial means to dilute the real value of the debt.

The current position of the United States fits this condition.

Debt/GDP has already exceeded 120%. Continuing to raise interest rates will only increase interest expenses and accelerate fiscal imbalance. Against this backdrop, the market is beginning to reprice a familiar but long-ignored option—financial repression.

If the Federal Reserve is led by figures like Kevin Warsh, who lean towards policy stability, the logical path would be very clear:

Short-term interest rates are artificially suppressed
Flatten the yield curve through treasury bond purchases and policy guidance
Let inflation outpace nominal interest rates
"Gently" reduce the debt burden over time

This is not a radical experiment, but history repeating itself.

In the three decades following the end of World War II, the United States precisely used low interest rates + moderate inflation + capital controls to significantly reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio without defaulting. Today's conditions are different, but the constraints are stronger, leaving fewer choices.

It is precisely because of this that the behavior of global central banks is changing.

When sovereign investors begin to systematically reduce their allocation to long-term US Treasuries and tilt their reserves towards non-credit assets like gold, this is not a short-term tactic, but a long-term hedge against the risk of currency purchasing power.

The key is not "whether the US will default," but:
Whether it will choose to quietly solve the problem with time and inflation.

From this perspective, gold is not a tool against the United States, but a tool against debt monetization.
And this is exactly the main thread that Dalio repeatedly emphasizes.

📬 I will continue to monitor the structural changes between the debt cycle, monetary policy, and asset allocation, especially the long-term risks masked by "stable narratives."
If you care more about real purchasing power under the major cycle than short-term price fluctuations, welcome to subscribe.

#RayDalio #USDebt #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #Gold #MacroInvesting