🔥 [Review] SMIC: Suffocating Low Volume — Eye of the Storm or a Dead End?

📉 【Acknowledging Mistakes and Making Corrections】
First, a Mea Culpa (my fault). In my analysis at the beginning of the week, I predicted that this week could see a strong rebound to the 72.00 level to test the pressure of the MA60. The market is always the best teacher—the K-line movement was weaker than I expected, with the bulls already exhausted around 71.95. Admitting misjudgment is part of trading; we respect the market.

But precisely because of this weakness, the current market situation has presented an extremely fascinating "technical singularity."

🧬 【Current Technical Structure: Extreme Compression】
Look at today's 15-minute K-line chart of $SMIC(00981.HK). The Bollinger Bands have narrowed to an extreme.

Drying Up of Volume: Trading volume in the first two hours today shrank significantly year-on-year; main capital is in a "dormant" state.
Entangled Moving Averages: On the daily chart, the stock price is sandwiched between the MA5 (69.87) and MA10 (70.36). In technical analysis, this is called "Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP)".

👉 A Vivid Analogy:
The current stock price is like a "spring pressed underwater." Today's (Thursday) drowsy movement is actually storing energy. Both bulls and bears are waiting for a trigger, neither daring to fire easily today. This calmness is usually a precursor to a trend change.

⏳ 【Time Window Script: Friday's Liquidity Test】
According to my Time Cycle Model, this week's Volatility Spike will occur tomorrow (Friday).
If today is "dawdling," tomorrow is likely the "decisive battle."

Scenario Projection: Due to heavy Overhead Supply, it's difficult for the market to directly V-reverse. Main players are highly likely to use the weekend effect to conduct an "ultimate washout" on Friday.
Key Action: Watch for whether there will be a volume-driven break below 69.00. Such a rapid sell-off is often intended to wipe out margin positions and stop-loss orders, thereby creating blood-stained chips.

🛡️ 【Contrarian Trading Strategy & Iron-Clad Risk Control】
For friends who like Contrarian Trading, tomorrow might be the only "sweet spot" this week.

Focus Zone: If panic selling occurs during the session, the 66.50 - 68.00 area is the lower edge of the previous high-density chip concentration zone, possessing strong support attributes.
⚠️ Risk Warning (Must Read):

Don't Catch a Falling Knife: Contrarian trading is inherently counter-trend, with low win rates but high payouts.
Position Management: Absolutely no heavy positions! It is recommended to use a 10%-15% observation position for trial and error.
Stop-Loss Principle: If it effectively breaks below 65.00, it means the trend has completely collapsed. You must exit unconditionally without any illusions.

🧠 【Trader's Notes】
Trading is not about predicting the future, but about preparing for various possibilities.
Today, not only must you control your hands, but also "you can even turn off the software."
Don't wear down your mentality in today's garbage time. Save your bullets for tomorrow's real "golden pit" (or "trap").

Let the market come to you. 🧘‍♂️