$Sandisk(SNDK.US)$Western Digital(WDC.US)$Micron Tech(MU.US)

Kioxia Q3 Earnings Preview: Likely to Exceed Expectations, Positive Impact on SanDisk

As the world's third-largest NAND flash memory manufacturer, Kioxia's earnings performance is a key barometer for observing the storage industry cycle.

I. Earnings Release Schedule

1. Corresponding Period: FY2025 Q3 (October–December 2025, Japanese fiscal year starts in April)

2. Release Time: After the close on February 12, Japan Time

The closing time for the Tokyo Stock Exchange is:

Japan Time: 3:00 PM (15:00)

Corresponding Beijing Time: 2:00 PM (14:00)

The actual earnings release and conference call usually occur within 30–60 minutes after the close, i.e., around 14:30–15:30 Beijing Time.

II. Core Earnings Expectations: High Probability of Exceeding Expectations

1. Market Consensus

Revenue: Company guidance is 500–550 billion yen, market consensus is around 520 billion yen, representing year-over-year growth of about 15% and quarter-over-quarter growth of about 16%, reaching a new quarterly record high.

Operating Profit: Company guidance is 99–139 billion yen, market consensus is around 120 billion yen, representing year-over-year growth of about 40% and quarter-over-quarter growth of about 40%, with an operating margin of about 23%.

Net Profit: Company guidance is 60–88 billion yen, market consensus is around 75 billion yen, representing year-over-year growth of about 85% and quarter-over-quarter growth of about 85%.

Key Drivers: NAND bit shipments grew 35–40% quarter-over-quarter, the proportion of enterprise eSSD and AI storage increased, and ASP (Average Selling Price) stopped declining and began to rise quarter-over-quarter.

2. Why is it Highly Likely to Exceed Expectations?

1. AI Storage Structural Upgrade: The shipment proportion and gross margin of enterprise eSSDs continue to improve, validating the core logic of AI-driven industry growth.

2. Strong Price Trend: The increase in NAND ASP exceeded market expectations, and the Q1 2026 price guidance will further strengthen confidence in the storage super cycle.

3. Improved Financial Health: Capital expenditure scale and cash flow conditions are good, achieving a balance between capacity expansion and financial stability.

III. Positive Impact on $Sandisk(SNDK.US) Stock Price

Kioxia and SanDisk are deeply intertwined in NAND business (joint venture fabs, shared technology). Therefore, Kioxia's earnings performance will directly translate into SanDisk's stock price movement:

Signal: The tight NAND supply-demand situation is confirmed, AI storage demand is exploding, and industry profit elasticity exceeds expectations.

Impact on SanDisk: Short-term stock price is expected to follow the upward trend, validating the recovery logic of its NAND business, especially the valuation repair of enterprise storage and AI-related businesses.

IV. Summary:

Kioxia's earnings are an important window to observe the NAND industry cycle. For SanDisk, the core driving forces remain AI storage demand and the NAND supply-demand landscape. Kioxia's earnings performance serves more as a reference to validate this logic.