⚡️ Xiaomi Group | Review: A deep squat – for a jump or to lie flat?

📉 First, I admit my mistake: In yesterday's analysis of $XIAOMI-W(01810.HK), I overly emphasized the smoothness of a one-sided attack, predicting Thursday would see consecutive bullish days forcing a short squeeze. But the market is always the best teacher—today, the main force wasn't eager to attack upwards, but instead chose a whole day of "grinding volatility", finally closing with a small bearish candlestick (36.58).

My apologies to all friends who went long and had their mentality worn down. 🙇‍♂️

But! However! Looking at the data without emotion, this bearish candlestick is not ugly at all; on the contrary, it's "sexy" to an excessive degree. It's like after a 100-meter sprint (Wednesday's big surge), the athlete needs a deep breath (Thursday's pullback).

👉 Hardcore Breakdown: Why do I call this a "fake fall"?

1️⃣ Textbook Volume-Price Divergence (Volume Dry-up) 🧱
Wednesday's breakout bullish candlestick traded 223 million shares, while today's decline saw volume shrink to 143 million (a 36% contraction).
Key point: Rising on high volume, falling on low volume. This means the main capital hasn't left at all; those who left were retail chips due to panic or profit-taking. This is the most standard "healthy washout".

2️⃣ Golden Defense Line Test (The Iron Floor) 🛡️
Remember the lifeline I've repeatedly emphasized? The 36.20 - 36.36 zone.
Today's low point precisely hit 36.30 and instantly bounced back. This shows that at this level, the bulls have set up dense "bunker" defenses. As long as this level holds, the bullish structure remains intact.

3️⃣ Indicator's "Physical Cooling" ❄️
Looking at the 15-minute K-chart, the RSI, which was in an "overheated" state above 80+ yesterday, has perfectly retreated to a comfortable zone near 39 through today's sideways decline.
This is like compressing a spring, creating space for an upward bounce.

🔮 Scenario Projection: Friday Showdown (The Finale)

Based on technical fractal structure projection, this week's volatility will peak on Friday.

If Wednesday was the "ignition" and Thursday was the "power accumulation," then Friday (tomorrow) is highly likely to be the "release." Since it can't be pushed down (low volume + effective support), the path of least resistance can only be—an upward engulfing reversal.

🗓 Key Node Forecast:

Morning: There's a probability of one last wave of inertial downward probing, which would be a golden pit for "left-side hunters."
Midday Session (11:00-13:00): Focus on this time window. The bulls and bears will likely decide the winner here, initiating a one-sided trend.

🏹 Trading Manual (Action Plan)

⚠️ Left-Side Trading Risk Warning: Catching the falling knife on the left side is a high-risk operation. Please strictly control your position size (suggested no more than 30%) and adhere to discipline.

🛒 Ambush Zone: If the opening dips to the 36.40 - 36.50 range, it's an excellent risk-reward point for aggressive players to bet on a reversal engulfing.
🎯 Target Level: First target is to engulf today's bearish candlestick. The core target points directly to the 38.00 level.
🛑 Stop-Loss Red Line: 36.20.
(Iron Rule: If tomorrow's closing price falls below 36.20, it means the trend is invalidated. Exit unconditionally, admit the loss, and don't hold onto illusions.)

In a nutshell:
Don't be scared out of your wits by today's red (green) session. As long as the floor (36.30) holds, we'll see you at the peak (38.00)! 💎🙌