🚨 RSI 11.39! Meituan is at an epic oversold level. Is it an abyss or a golden opportunity?
First, stand straight and take the beating 🙇♂️. Yesterday, $MEITUAN(03690.HK) I thought there would be support around 87 during the review, but this big bearish candle directly shattered my expectation. Technically, the inertia of the bearish trend completely overwhelmed the short-term support. If the analysis is wrong, it's wrong. No excuses, my apologies to everyone.
But as a rational trader, now is absolutely not the time to panic. On the contrary, looking at today's closing data, my system alerts are flashing wildly.
Why? Because we are witnessing a historical-level "sentiment freezing point." 📉
📊 Hardcore Data Breakdown (Data Don't Lie)
1. RSI Smashed Through the Floor (The Extreme Oversold)
The daily RSI6 was actually pushed down to 11.39!
What does this mean? In the past few years, such extreme values are few and far between. In technical analysis, RSI<20 is called oversold, RSI 11 is called "the spring compressed to its physical limit." Physics tells us, the harder you press, the stronger the rebound.
2. Deviation Rate Black Hole (Deviation)
The stock closed at 84.85, completely detached from the Bollinger Band lower band (86.80). The K-line "going off the rails" will inevitably lead to mean reversion. Currently, there is a vacuum zone of over 4 yuan between the stock price and MA5 (approx. 89). This is the potential rebound space.
3. Panic Selling Surge (Capitulation)
Today's trading volume was as high as 90 million+ (normally only around 40 million). This high-volume bearish candle indicates the last holders have collapsed. In price-volume relationships, "high volume at low levels" often means the main force is absorbing the blood-stained chips from panic sellers.
⏳ Scenario Projection: Friday's "Cycle Resonance"
Normally, this kind of breakdown pattern would indeed warrant exiting. But tomorrow is Friday, which is an extremely special node:
- Short Covering Logic: At a position where RSI is only 11, and on the eve of the weekend, shorts with substantial profits are less likely to hold positions over the weekend. Once funds start covering shorts, it's extremely easy to trigger **"stampede-style rally (Short Squeeze)"**.
- Time Window: According to my cycle model calculation, tomorrow (Friday) will be a very strong trend reversal window. If today was being held underwater and suffocating, tomorrow is the moment to surface for air.
⚔️ Trading Strategy (Plan Your Trade)
💀 Left-side Trading Warning:
Must emphasize, this currently belongs to extreme left-side gambling (catching a falling knife). The trend is still downward, risk is extremely high!
Position Suggestion: Light position to test the waters, do NOT go all in!
🎯 Key Levels:
- Ambush Zone: If there's a continuation sell-off tomorrow morning to 84.00 - 84.50, watch for the 15-minute level bullish divergence signal.
- Defensive Level (Stop Loss): 83.00. If this level is effectively broken through, it means the fundamental logic is completely broken, stop loss unconditionally.
- Target Level: Short-term look for deviation rate repair, target 87.50 - 88.00.
📝 Summary:
This spring has been compressed to the bottom. Although my hand hurts, I choose to believe in the probability of data statistics. Tomorrow is Friday, which is also the endpoint of this round of panic sentiment release.
Don't be a vague fence-sitter. Have a clear stance, profits and losses share the same origin.
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