Can the capital-backed "rising star in card games" break free from the fate of working for IPs?

As the Spring Festival approaches, competition in the trading card sector is heating up. Recently, Kayou officially became the exclusive trading card partner of the China Media Group's "2026 Spring Festival Gala." Meanwhile, Kakavo launched the "Little Pony Gallop Card" series, co-branded with the Gala for sale; Wuliu Culture secured the exclusive licensing rights for the CCTV's 1986 version of "Journey to the West" trading cards.

Amid the industry's growth momentum, leading company Kayou once created a myth of tens of billions in revenue with IPs like Ultraman and My Little Pony, but its path to listing has been repeatedly blocked. The structural issue of long-term reliance on licensed IPs is gradually becoming apparent.

Newcomers in the second tier—Suplay, Shanhun, Hitcard, etc.—are accelerating their push for a Hong Kong listing with the support of capital, attempting to seize market opportunities amidst industry volatility and fierce IP competition.

However, as the market cools, IP scarcity diminishes, and secondary market values fluctuate, this "trading card listing race" is not merely a numbers game but a marathon concerning innovation capabilities, audience insight, and capital operations.

Amid the Capital Frenzy, the Second Tier Begins to Rise

In 2025, China's trading card market experienced unprecedented turbulence. On one hand, the overall market size for non-battle collectible cards fell by 26.8% year-on-year, ending at 23.5 billion yuan, with consumer-grade collectible cards dropping over 40%. On the other hand, higher-priced segments targeting core audiences, such as collectible cards, TCGs, and sports cards, continued to grow.

The industry's divergence is stark: against the backdrop of an overall market cool-down, capital remains enthusiastic about new card companies, pushing second-tier firms to accelerate their listing efforts.

Kakavo, under Suplay, is a typical example. This company, focusing on adult collectible cards, sets product prices above 10 yuan, with a box of Marvel series cards priced as high as 699 yuan, precisely targeting a niche high-end market.

Since 2023, Suplay has ramped up IP licensing, collaborating almost entirely with internationally renowned IPs from Disney's centennial celebration to "Harry Potter" and "Game of Thrones." Data shows that in the first three quarters of 2025, licensed IP sales accounted for a staggering 95%, while proprietary IP contributed only 4.1%, indicating a business model heavily reliant on third-party IPs.

Shanhun targets younger demographics and the gaming IP track, launching physical card products with IPs like "Identity V," "Genshin Impact - Seven Sacred Summons," and "Reverse: 1999." In April 2025, Shanhun established its overseas brand GloriousSoul, entering the Southeast Asian and Japanese markets.

"Rune Battlefield" reached the runner-up position on the monthly chart of the card trading platform in its launch month, driving an 84% year-on-year increase in TCG transaction volume in the first three quarters. Similarly backed by capital, Hitcard focuses on the film and TV card market, deepening its collaboration with China Literature Group to leverage its library of over 1,000 IPs and offline channel advantages, achieving an expected doubling of annual revenue.

Capital support and strategic track selection have enabled the rapid rise of the second tier, making the Hong Kong IPO sprint a hot topic in the industry. Suplay, Shanhun, and Hitcard have all submitted applications or are queuing for listing, aiming to seize the opportunity to become the "second listed trading card company."

With the boost from the capital market, they are not only expanding offline stores but also enhancing brand influence through overseas expansion and IP-linked events. Particularly in niche segments, the growth potential of collectible cards, sports cards, and TCGs has been continuously validated, providing reliable support for the rapid expansion of these newcomers.

However, beneath the capital frenzy lie deep-seated contradictions. The target audiences of different companies vary significantly: TCG cards, primarily aimed at teenagers, emphasize competitiveness and social attributes; while collectible cards for adults focus more on scarcity, liquidity, and are even viewed as luxury items or investments.

Companies need precise positioning among different audiences; otherwise, they risk losing core users in intense competition. Suplay's success lies in targeting a niche high-end group, while Kayou follows a mass-market approach. Its low-price pack strategy of 1 to 10 yuan, while expanding coverage, struggles to maintain the scarcity value of high-end collectible cards.

Structural Concerns Behind the Listing Push

Despite the short-term growth driven by capital, second-tier companies inevitably face structural challenges.

The trading card market's long-term reliance on licensed IPs means companies must not only endure fluctuations in IP popularity cycles but also cope with the dual pressures of high licensing costs and declining contributions from proprietary IPs.

Suplay's licensed IP sales proportion has increased year by year, from 54.2% in 2023 to 85.1% in 2024 and 95% in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating its core business model remains essentially "working for the IPs."

Secondary market price volatility further exacerbates uncertainty. Popular IP cards like the "Identity V" series sold well initially, but as market supply increased and limited-edition strategies were compromised, secondary market prices plummeted, leading to decreased player purchase intent and lower repurchase rates.

Hitcard's overprinting of black cards diluted their collectible value, while Suplay's high-end cards, outside of Disney's centennial IPs, face similar issues. Card companies attempt to maintain prices through limited releases and scarcity strategies, but in practice, balancing market supply with consumer expectations is difficult.

Offline channel pressure is equally significant. Kayou once implemented a franchise model, but facing high inventory and low return rates, franchisees had to close stores within months to cut losses, selling products at discounted prices.

This high-inventory, high-risk operational model also serves as a lesson and warning for newcomers: even with ample capital, channel management and inventory control remain critical challenges to overcome before listing.

The TCG market has a long cultivation cycle, with per capita spending in China far below that of Japan and the United States. According to Frost & Sullivan data, in 2024, per capita spending on collectible card games in China was only 18.7 yuan, compared to 119.3 yuan in Japan and 64 yuan in the United States.

This means that even with sufficient capital injection, companies still need time to educate the market and cultivate loyal players. Although Shanhun created social fission through events with "Rune Battlefield," user experience and rule design require further refinement, and the maturity of the entire TCG ecosystem will still take years.

Ultimately, the core issue facing card companies pushing for listing is not just a competition of capital and sales figures but whether they can establish a sustainable proprietary IP system, a stable player base, and a healthy secondary market ecosystem.

Kayou, a company with tens of billions in revenue, is also attempting diversified layouts, including plush toys, stationery, BJD dolls, and other derivatives, as well as signing celebrity endorsements to enhance brand power, but its listing path remains uncertain.

Whether the newcomers in the second tier can leverage capital to achieve an overtaking maneuver will directly determine the next phase of China's trading card industry landscape.

Conclusion

China's trading card market is still in a stage of simultaneous expansion and reshuffling. With intensified efforts in capital, IPs, niche segments, and overseas markets, second-tier companies have shown explosive growth in the short term.

However, structural challenges such as heavy reliance on IPs, secondary market value volatility, channel inventory pressure, and the long cultivation cycle of the TCG market make this listing race full of uncertainty. In the future, whoever can break through the bottleneck of licensed IP dependency and build a proprietary IP ecosystem and mature user base may occupy a commanding position in the capital market and industry landscape.

For investors and market observers, this IPO race surrounding the second tier of trading card companies is not only a financial competition but also a contest of innovation capabilities, product differentiation, and market insight.