Likes ReceivedThere's a high probability of a broad-based rally tomorrow!!
$Shanghai Composite Index sh000001$ Today, the Shanghai Composite Index basically "did nothing," while the STAR and ChiNext boards directly surged over 1%, completely opposite to yesterday!
The trading volume of the two markets was 2.14 trillion, a direct increase of 160 billion compared to yesterday, which is indeed a bit surprising—there could still be incremental funds flowing in before the holiday.
However, today's profit-making effect was all concentrated in tech hardware: computing power, optical modules, and liquid cooling all surged. But individual stocks were really mediocre: 3280 stocks waiting to rise, with a median of -0.5%.
Recently, the market has been a typical extreme rotation: only one or two sectors have meat to eat each day, while the rest are just watching. If you buy right, you eat meat; if you buy wrong, you just endure. Rhythm is more important than direction.
Tomorrow is the last trading day of the Year of the Snake. The funds that should have withdrawn today have basically all withdrawn, so tomorrow's market selling pressure will be very light. If nothing unexpected happens, tomorrow is highly likely to be a broad-based rally for individual stocks, a Spring Festival red envelope market!
It is recommended that everyone hold stocks over the holiday, for reasons already mentioned many times before. Of course, we must also guard against low-probability black swans. Controlling positions at 60% to 80% is most appropriate, leaving some cash for peace of mind.
Tomorrow, you can also make small position adjustments to bet on directions that may develop during the Spring Festival holiday: robotics, AI applications, computing power, adjusted commercial aerospace, innovative drugs, and broad consumption—these are all key areas.
A rise tomorrow can bring happiness for 11 days; a single bullish candle is totally worth it!
I. Market Overview
Technology was the absolute mainstream today: AI hardware pulled up in the morning, semiconductor chips saw catch-up gains in the afternoon, and memory chips surged again at the close! Technology really boosts market sentiment, which is also the core reason for today's volume increase.
But with the entire screen filled with tech, all other sectors got beaten up, making many people unhappy.
I saw someone complaining: "You can't buy stocks with a P/E ratio under 20 in the A-share market, you'll lose money; you have to buy those with over 200 times P/E to make money!"
Actually, the reasoning is simple: there are only stocks that are strong in their era, not stocks that are strong forever. Back in the day, Moutai, Vanke, and PetroChina were also dazzling "fresh meat," but times have changed.
The essence of the current global competition is high-tech rivalry and the AI revolution. Technology is the future's vast ocean of stars.
There are definitely those riding the hype here, and bubbles will burst in the future,
but investing in tech stocks is somewhat like venture capital: bet right and you eat meat, bet wrong and you bear the volatility—it depends on your own risk appetite.
II. Sectors
1) AI Applications
Recently, there have been continuous catalysts in the AI direction. The index trend has bottomed out and rebounded, with a healthy structure. This morning saw divergence and pressure, but funds with early positions directly rushed to buy in the afternoon. The popular veteran leader hit the limit-up, boosting sentiment.
In the subdivision of AI film/TV: only core targets saw gains, while followers performed averagely. I haven't been very optimistic about pure film and cinema stocks from the start; they don't even count as real AI applications in my eyes.
After the market closed, I saw some news and felt quite emotional: domestic manufacturers have already reached the forefront of the world, even earning praise from Elon Musk.
But the A-share market remains the same old story: the core ones you can't buy into, and the ones you can buy into are easy traps. In contrast, AI applications in the Hong Kong market are moving more healthily and trendily.
2) Technology (Computing Power, Semiconductors)
Today saw a comprehensive recovery, with computing power hardware, semiconductors, power supplies, etc., collectively pulling up. Many individual stocks hit all-time highs. The essence is still rotation + strong gains overseas + price increase logic as catalysts.
But with the current volume, it's still insufficient to support a sustained, full-line short squeeze. Continue to operate according to the rotation rhythm. Before the box range is broken, don't chase big rallies; make appropriate spread trades to reduce costs.
3) Power Grid Equipment
Today saw volume expansion and a rally, with multiple stocks hitting the limit-up. The overseas power shortage logic continues to support the sector's upward movement. After adjustments, the index and popular stocks are still in an upward channel.
If subsequent trading continues with volume expansion and new highs, a new round of main uptrend is possible. Keep a close eye on core targets.
Tomorrow is the last day; don't worry too much about the index. The probability of closing in the green is extremely high. Those who needed to reduce positions have already done so long ago. Most people are preparing for the New Year; a smooth closing is fine.
Wishing everyone a red envelope tomorrow and a happy New Year!
The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the stance of the platform. The content is intended for investment reference purposes only and shall not be considered as investment advice. Please contact us if you have any questions or suggestions regarding the content services provided by the platform.
