$Micron Tech(MU.US)$Sandisk(SNDK.US) Storage's Decade-Long Super Cycle... Latest Interview with Phison Chairman Pan Jiancheng

Mr. Pan was the first industry insider to propose the 10-year super cycle for memory last year. When ChatGPT emerged in 2023, he predicted there would be unlimited demand for NAND Flash, and was also the first to suggest using NAND in GPU computing systems.

A few days ago, Jensen Huang said infrastructure construction would continue for at least another 7-8 years, which aligns closely with Mr. Pan's decade-long super cycle prediction.

In the past, computing systems relied on DRAM. Now, NAND is not only used for storage but will also enter computing systems to compensate for DRAM's shortcomings. NVIDIA mentioned at CES 2026 that their systems have already incorporated large amounts of NAND. The shift of AI towards inference requires massive amounts of NAND. The Rubin platform has 22TB of SSD next to each GPU. Assuming NVIDIA sells 10 million GPUs annually, the SSD capacity would be 200EB. The global total output in 2025 is only 1000EB, meaning NVIDIA would account for 20% of global production. NVIDIA's order volume for the first five months of 2026 is already 20 million GPUs, and institutions estimate shipments of 12.5 million units this year... This is just the demand on the GPU computing side, not even counting the demand for storage. The demand for NAND in storage is endless... NAND price is 1/50th of DRAM. Manufacturers are all focusing on high-margin DRAM, leading to a more severe shortage of NAND than DRAM, the worst shortage in a lifetime... Cloud company revenue is proportional to storage, and storage demand has no ceiling, so there is no cyclicality anymore...

For Flash, expanding production to reach supply-demand balance now requires 2-3 cycles, with each cycle taking at least 2 years. Purchasing equipment from the Netherlands requires a two-year queue for delivery, and expansion costs will also increase. However, new demand will emerge in a few years, and the gap will still exist...

Now, some Flash original manufacturers are requiring prepayment for three years, anticipating shortages for at least three years.

Phison's own production capacity can only meet 30% of customer orders.

Mainland manufacturers' expansion will only increase capacity by 3-5%, but the gap is 10-20%. The expansion speed isn't that fast either. The current memory shortage is caused by the cloud. Future incremental demand from the ground level still cannot be met. Moreover, there is also a shortage of memory demand within the mainland itself; they don't have enough for their own use. Therefore, there is no situation of low-priced exports. The most aggressive company raising prices is an American firm, and the second is a mainland firm.

An internal document report from one original manufacturer says the shortage will last until 2030. Mr. Pan says absolutely.