📜 Hang Seng Tech: Is the "Deep V" on New Year's Eve a Bull Trap or the Bottom? A Complete Breakdown of the 2026 Opening Script 📈

I thought I could have a peaceful reunion dinner during the half-day market on New Year's Eve, but the $Hang Seng TECH Index(STECH.HK) insisted on performing a "high-altitude bungee jump." From 5253 to 5367, a 114-point extreme deep V—this isn't celebrating the New Year; it's conducting a "maximum pressure" test for the shorts.

Below is a live calibration report based on the latest price-volume structure and chip distribution. It is recommended to save it:

🌪️ Part 1: Volatility Monitoring — The "Foreshock" Has Already Occurred

The movement on 02/16 was highly deceptive. The market forcibly completed a panic selling release under conditions of extreme liquidity scarcity (Stock Connect for Hong Kong was closed).

5253 Anchor Point: The lower shadow here wasn't drawn casually; it precisely touched the "no-man's land" of chip distribution over nearly 180 cycles.
Hammer Candlestick Characterization: The ratio of the lower shadow to the real body is as high as 5.7:1, far exceeding the standard hammer. This indicates that the buying support at the low was not retail behavior but institutional-level liquidity capture.

🔎 Part 2: "Aftershock" Preview on the Timeline

According to the current dynamic model, we divide the next week into two key stress release points:

[Stress Release Point A] 02/20 (Friday): Downgraded from "Main Shock" to "Aftershock"

Technical Logic: There was originally a huge "selling pressure vacuum" before the holiday, but the plunge on 02/16 has already consumed some of the short-side momentum in advance.
Scenario Forecast: It is highly likely that the market will test the 5280-5310 support zone again on Friday. If it can hold the low of 5253 from 02/16, the embryonic form of a "W bottom" will appear; if it breaks through, beware of a follow-through decline.

[Stress Release Point B] 02/23 (Monday): The Eve of Waiting for "Reinforcements"

Technical Logic: This is the last trading day before the resumption of Stock Connect for Hong Kong. The market will enter a period of consolidation and bottom grinding with extremely low volume.
Scenario Forecast: Volatility will significantly converge, with possibly only a 30-50 point range for the entire day. The market is waiting for the "unsealing" of southbound capital on 02/24.

🧭 Part 3: Battlefield Characterization and Key Levels

Moving Average System: The daily chart still shows a full bearish alignment of MA5/10/20/60. The major trend has not reversed.
Chip Resistance: 5406-5415 is the current VPOC (Volume Point of Control, the center of maximum chip distribution). Over 11% of trapped positions are piled up here. Before firmly standing above 5415, treat all rebounds as "bull traps."
Oversold Signal: The MACD histogram on the 4H chart has already turned positive first, with significant momentum decay, indicating that the phase of "most aggressive selling" has passed.

🏹 Part 4: Three-Dimensional Tactical Drill (Tactical Execution)

⚠️ Trading Discipline: The current situation is an oversold rebound within a bearish trend. Remember: "Don't trade the first reversal; wait for the second confirmation."

1️⃣ 🛡️ Conservative Faction: High-Altitude Ambush (Following the Major Trend)

Entry Point: Wait for a rebound to the 5400-5415 range. If signs of stalling appear (e.g., a long upper shadow on the 15-minute chart), enter.
Target: Look towards 5310.
Stop Loss: 5450.

2️⃣ 🛑 Aggressive Faction: Left-Side Probing (Against the Major Trend)

Entry Point: When the market probes the 5280-5310 zone again on 02/20 without breaking the previous low, you can enter with a light position.
Risk Warning: Left-side trading carries extremely high risk! Be sure to control the total position to within 10%, acting as a "vanguard" probe.
Hard Stop Loss: 5240 (Once the closing price falls below 5253, the logic immediately becomes invalid, and you must exit).

3️⃣ ⚔️ Follow-Through Faction: Breakout Chase

Entry Point: If on 02/20, the price directly breaks below 5253 on high volume and fails to recover within 15 minutes.
Target: The next stop is the weekly Bollinger lower band at 5150.

💡 Hidden Yuan Notes

This hammer candlestick on New Year's Eve is a "signal flare" fired by the bulls, but it is definitely not a "charge signal."
What we are waiting for is not the lowest point, but to verify the support strength at 5253 on 02/20 and to wait for the assembly call of the southbound capital reinforcements on 02/24. Before the trend reverses, preserving capital is more important than catching a rebound.

⚠️ Disclaimer:
This report is based on technical indicators and historical price-volume data model simulations and does not constitute any investment advice. The Hong Kong stock market is significantly influenced by global macroeconomics, geopolitics, and liquidity. Actual market movements may deviate substantially from the model. The market carries risks; invest with caution, and you are responsible for your own gains and losses.