$Microsoft(MSFT.US) A strategy with a very high win rate is to slowly build a position in the worst-performing stock among the Magnificent Seven (excluding Tesla), and then gradually reduce the position when sentiment becomes overly optimistic. I held Google from 150 all the way to 350. When Google was at $150 and Microsoft at $4T, many people were even personally attacking Pichai, calling him an incompetent bureaucrat, while lavishly praising Satya. Clearly, the market sentiment has now reversed.

If you don't build your own conviction early in the consensus, it's very difficult to achieve excess returns. When the market believes a company is about to fail, you should be even more convinced. That's why we see Duan Yongping and Buffett's portfolios are very concentrated—they don't buy what they don't understand. If they buy something they don't understand and it falls, they don't dare to add; if it rises, they can't resist taking profits.

Too impatient, and the community atmosphere is also too impatient.