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Rate Of Return🚀 $Amazon(AMZN.US) has pulled back over 20%, but what I see is not risk, but the starting point for repricing.
When a company falls more than 20% from its high, most people instinctively think "the trend is broken."
But what I'm more concerned about is whether the fundamentals have deteriorated simultaneously.
With $Amazon(AMZN.US), I see the exact opposite.
After cost restructuring in the retail segment, efficiency is recovering;
The advertising business has become a high-margin growth engine;
AWS, as the core cash flow generator, has long-term resilience in the enterprise IT budget recovery cycle.
What's truly undervalued is the structure.
The market's current focus is still on growth rate fluctuations,
while overlooking the improvement in profit margins and the repair of free cash flow.
When valuations are compressed near the bottom of the historical range,
risk hasn't increased; it has actually decreased.
What I value more is:
In an environment where macro uncertainty still exists,
who has the ability to continue expanding infrastructure, maintain innovation investment, while keeping cash flow stable?
$Amazon(AMZN.US) is one of the few companies that can do all three at the same time.
$300 is not an emotional target.
If profitability continues to improve, valuation repair is only a matter of time.
Looking back ten months from now,
what's truly worth reviewing is not the volatility, but whether we underestimated its resilience at the time.
📣 I will continue to share my structural judgments on core tech companies, and how to find positions with better risk-reward ratios amidst volatility.
Welcome to follow, and let's stay clear-headed when emotions swing.
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