Divergence in the Fed's interest rate cut path intensifies, high-rate expectations pressure risk assets

There is a significant divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding the path of interest rate cuts. The meeting minutes show that some officials support cutting rates after inflation falls back, but most members pointed out that the downside risks to employment have subsided, while the process of cooling inflation is slow, requiring the retention of a "two-way" description in the interest rate guidance to leave room for rate hikes if inflation remains high. Federal Reserve Governor Milan also noted that improvements in the labor market may mean fewer rate cuts this year. As expectations for a prolonged high-interest-rate environment extend, concerns about liquidity tightening are heating up, pushing up financing costs and creating valuation headwinds for risk assets.

Source: KGI Securities