The misunderstood Bilibili, the overhyped Pinduoduo

I just searched for Bilibili and casually recorded a few of its higher lows. I found that from July 2024 until now, over a year, it has actually given nearly 20+ major opportunities for arbitrage. Calling it the ATM for Chinese concept stocks isn't an exaggeration, right? Whether it's for arbitrage or grid trading, Bilibili is quite comfortable. Or, you could simply hold it long-term, which is also comfortable.

12.72-31-19-24-18-23-15-24-20-24-14-25.74-21-25.59-22-31-26-32.5-24-27.6-33.74-30-36.4-29.21-32-29.56

But I haven't touched this stock at all from start to finish because whenever Bilibili is mentioned, everyone says it's going to go under, referring to its users as 'B 小将' (B 站 die-hard fans) and negative assets, which made me afraid to buy. Yet, it happens to have the best trend among Chinese concept stocks, at least maintaining a positive three-to-one ratio, right?

In fact, it has strong uptrends when needed, good elasticity, and volatility. I think among all Chinese concept stocks, it's the most comfortable. Moreover, it doesn't trap people; every time it shakes out weak hands through consolidation, it pulls back up, and it even hit a new high in October 2024.

What does a new high in October 2024 mean? How many people got trapped in that rally? JD.com was at $46, and it's still oscillating around $26, $27 now, almost halved. But, even if you bought Bilibili at its peak of $30, if you held onto it, you could have gained 20 points because it reached $36 some time ago.

Among Chinese concept stocks, the most hyped is also Pinduoduo, including myself when I entered the US stock market, I got tricked into thinking Pinduoduo was really good. Although I personally don't use Pinduoduo for shopping at all, using Taobao instead, I still firmly believed Pinduoduo was better than Taobao. Then I looked at the curve. Pinduoduo has plummeted over 30 points from 2024 until now. From 2024 until now, all other Chinese concept stocks have been in strong uptrends, but Pinduoduo is the weakest, and it hasn't had a decent rebound in all these years.

Now I really don't understand, what's so great about a stock that doesn't pay dividends, has no elasticity, and keeps declining slowly? It's not suitable for grid trading, not suitable for value investing, and not great for arbitrage either. But if you insist on arguing, selling at $140 and buying at $100 is theoretically feasible. It does oscillate within that range, but most of the time, buying Pinduoduo is a very mentally taxing thing.

I won't use Bilibili to bully Pinduoduo; let's take a similar one, Alibaba. It has strong uptrends when needed, good elasticity, and doesn't trap people. Whether it's for arbitrage, grid trading, or value investing, it's more comfortable than Pinduoduo. And even for selling options to collect premium, Alibaba's IV is more expensive than Pinduoduo's.

So now I really don't understand. Clearly, Pinduoduo has been the weakest stock over the past three years, even worse than the now-halved JD.com and Meituan, because JD.com and Meituan have either slightly risen or slightly fallen from 2024 until now, while Pinduoduo has plummeted. Moreover, Meituan and JD.com doubled at one point during this period, while Pinduoduo never doubled, its highest point during that time was only a 20-point gain. The holding experience is truly worlds apart. I say it's the trashiest among Chinese concept stocks, yet the most popular influencer stock with the largest fanbase, am I right?

Watching my $80,000 worth of Pinduoduo options go to zero, my heart is bleeding. I always thought I was value investing, but I was actually in prison. This stock market is also quite funny; the more you seek stability and pursue fundamentals, the bigger the loss you'll eat. Instead, those with fundamentals you consider average can give you unexpected surprises.

If given another chance, I'd rather be a 'B 小将' than invest in Pinduoduo anymore.