EBC Global Focus 丨 Oil prices bullish, Trump's ultimatum drives up gold

Oil prices rose on Friday (February 20), poised for their first weekly gain in three weeks, as Washington warned Tehran of consequences if a nuclear deal is not reached within days, heightening market concerns over escalating conflict.

Iranian state media reported that the country had closed the Strait of Hormuz for several hours on Tuesday, and it remains unclear whether the waterway has fully reopened to traffic.

Approximately 20% of the world's oil supply passes through this strategic crude export route. Iran also plans to hold joint naval exercises with Russia, demonstrating its tough stance.

U.S. Energy Information Administration data showed that U.S. crude inventories fell by 9 million barrels in the week ending February 13, the largest decline in five months, primarily due to rising refinery utilization and exports.

JP Morgan analysts noted that the crude surplus that emerged in the second half of 2025 persisted into January, and with OPEC+ leaning towards resuming production increases in April, this surplus "could persist."

Venezuela's refining network is currently operating at only 35% of its designed capacity of 1.29 million barrels per day. While this is higher than last year's 20%-25% level, the capacity is insufficient to meet the country's growing domestic fuel demand.

WTI crude oil prices hovered around $67, showing little sign of a bearish reversal. Prices are expected to test the $67.6 level seen in July, with volatility likely to remain elevated next week.

Hot Product Briefing

As of the close on February 19, among EBC's main products, Quanta Services' stock price led gains, with its Q4 results and 2026 outlook highlighting record backlogs and accelerating demand growth.

Stellantis NV's stock price fell sharply below key moving averages, indicating an unfavorable underlying trend. The current movement reflects sustained selling pressure with no signs of near-term relief.

Gold prices rebounded above $5,000 as concerns over potential conflict in the Middle East intensified. Donald Trump said on Thursday that he would decide within the next 10 days whether to launch a military strike against Iran.

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