🔥📈 Behind the $240 target price for $NVIDIA(NVDA.US), what truly determines the direction is "execution capability" rather than the rating itself.

While the market is still debating whether AI has entered a phase of valuation overextension,

RBC Capital Markets has chosen to clearly take a stand once again—

reiterating its Outperform rating on $NVIDIA(NVDA.US) and maintaining a $240 target price.

But the rating is just the surface.

I'm more concerned with structural variables.

The first layer is the beat & raise expectations for this quarter.

Analysts expect a 3–4% upside surprise and a possible guidance raise.

During a phase of lukewarm sentiment towards tech stocks,

as long as execution is delivered, capital will flow back.

The second layer is the backlog exceeding $500 billion for 2025/26.

What does a backlog of orders mean?

It means revenue visibility for the next two years.

As long as data center capital expenditure doesn't contract significantly,

this main theme remains intact.

The third layer is the stability of gross margins.

Memory price increases are an objective reality,

but with HBM prices locked in for 2026,

it means the cost structure is predictable.

The market's previous concern about the "memory eroding profits" logic

has not materialized into a substantial impact in the short term.

Looking further ahead at the catalyst timeline:

Blackwell volume ramp

GTC conference

Rubin extending to 2027

Supply chain feedback remains strong.

An even more important point—

China H200 is not factored into current forecasts.

This means if there is marginal improvement on the policy front,

there is room for upward model revisions.

RBC also mentioned that

$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) trades at a double-digit discount compared to peers and the "Mag 7".

This situation has hardly occurred in the past few years.

But I won't simply interpret this as "cheap".

Discounts usually stem from two reasons:

either marginal growth is slowing,

or the market is overly cautious.

The key question is—

which one is it this time?

If Blackwell ramps up smoothly,

and the backlog continues to expand,

then it's the second reason.

If the timeline is delayed,

the discount becomes risk compensation.

The market is no longer paying for "stories",

but for "execution".

Strong execution, trend continues.

Weak execution, volatility prolongs.

What I'm more concerned about is:

Is this a consolidation phase within the AI supercycle,

or a precursor to peaking profit margins?

📬 I will periodically share observations and analysis on 10x potential trading opportunities and key trends in popular stocks.

Welcome to subscribe, let's complete forward-looking positioning together before the next wave of technological innovation begins.