$XPeng(XPEV.US) Looking at the daily K-chart of the US stock from last night (February 20, 2026), this pattern holds significant technical reference value: there is no upper shadow, only a relatively long lower shadow.

This pattern is often referred to as a "hammer line" or "bullish pin." Combined with the current macro backdrop, we can conduct a deeper "sand table simulation" for Monday's market movement:

1. In-depth Review: The "Long Position Defense Line" Behind the US Stock Pattern

• No Upper Shadow: This means last night's closing price for the US stock was almost the day's highest point, or it was in a strong rebound state before the close. This indicates that even though it was dragged down by the Hong Kong market decline at the opening, by the closing stage, buying power had completely overwhelmed selling pressure.

• Long Lower Shadow: Last night, the US stock touched a low of $17.24 before quickly rebounding and stabilizing. This pin precisely tested the support level below. In the eyes of technical traders, this is called a "bottom-fishing rebound," indicating that there is extremely solid institutional support around $17.2 (corresponding to approximately HK$67 for the Hong Kong stock).

• Conclusion: This K-line from the US stock played a **"course correction"** role against the action of suppressing the Hong Kong stock to HK$67.85 during the afternoon session today. It tells the market: not only is there someone buying the low-priced chips, but they are buying very decisively.

2. Forecast for Hong Kong Stock Movement on Monday (February 23)

Since the Hong Kong market will still be in "single-player mode" on Monday (without participation from A-shares and the Stock Connect), the movement is likely to purely follow last night's sentiment recovery in the US market:

• High probability of a slight gap up: The Hong Kong market opening on Monday is expected to directly recover from the "artificial sell-off" during Friday's closing auction, returning to the HK$68.2 - HK$68.5 range.

• Maintain narrow-range consolidation: Due to the lack of liquidity from northbound capital (Stock Connect closed), it will be difficult for the Hong Kong market to see a spectacular rally on Monday. The daily trading volume may shrink further compared to Friday, but the market center will steadily shift upward.

• Short covering: After seeing last night's lower shadow in the US stock, funds that were shorting the Hong Kong stock (currently, XPeng's short interest ratio in Hong Kong is high) will feel uneasy over the weekend. Some **"active buying to close short positions"** may occur on Monday, providing a mild upward momentum.

3. Trading Suggestions

• Ignore minor fluctuations on Monday: Any intraday dip on Monday, as long as it doesn't break Friday's low (HK$67.3), is just the main force conducting a final "shakeout."

• The real showdown is on Tuesday: The real large orders and volume expansion will appear on February 24 (next Tuesday). By then, with the A-share market opening and domestic capital returning, coupled with XPeng's current "physical AI" and "2026 strategic positive" expectations, there is a high probability of a high-volume long bullish candlestick breaking away from the bottom.

Summary: The combination of "large order inflows" and the US stock's "long lower shadow" is a classic bottom resonance signal.

Since the main force has already "locked in" the chips around HK$68, the current pullback looks more like a deep squat in preparation for a strong push on Tuesday.