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AMD Gain HunterWhat you said is true, I'll just add two points:
1. The weight-loss drug market is a blue ocean with demand exceeding supply. Eli Lilly's production capacity cannot swallow the entire market, and the high entry barriers make it difficult for new manufacturers to enter.
2. Novo Nordisk's semaglutide has FDA-approved cardiovascular prevention and kidney disease delay effects, which is why federal Medicare and other national health insurance plans can cover it.
$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US)
$Novo Nordisk AS(NVO.US) Just finished my research, sharing what I've learned. Here's a brief description.
First, the conclusion: Lilly absolutely crushes Novo Nordisk in every dimension.
1. Lilly is currently researching a triple-target weight loss drug, expected to submit for approval by the end of 2026 or early 2027. The trial data shows an average weight loss of a staggering 28.7%! Once it hits the market, it will be a game-changer!
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2. Market share: Lilly has over 60% market share in the US and is still rising. Novo has 39% in the US (and is declining). This is very normal. Tirzepatide's dual-target mechanism is far superior to semaglutide's single-target, whether in terms of side effects or weight loss, it's a comprehensive advantage! Moreover, the GLP-1 patents in India and China expire this year, and many generic drugs are already stocked up. So, they can only treat the US and Europe as the main battleground.
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3. Price: After the Inflation Reduction Act, the prices of Lilly and Novo are basically the same. In this case, why wouldn't people choose Lilly, which has better efficacy? The market share gap with Lilly will only widen in 2026! Also, starting from January 2026, prices in China have dropped to one-fifth of the original. With similar prices for Lilly and Novo, this situation will only lead to exponential growth for Lilly!
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4. Oral drugs: Lilly's oral drug was approved in April and has ample supply ready, just waiting for approval. In terms of efficacy, Lilly's small molecule oral drug has no dietary restrictions. Novo's is a peptide and must be taken on an empty stomach 30 minutes before, with water limited to 120ml. Head-to-head comparison (ACHIEVE-3 trial, T2D patients, 52 weeks): Lilly's orforglipron 36mg achieved 9.2% weight loss vs. Novo's oral semaglutide 14mg at 5.3% (Lilly's relative advantage is 73.6%). Furthermore, the production cost of Lilly's small molecule is extremely low, while Novo's peptide is relatively complex and has a higher production cost.
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5. Novo Nordisk's only remaining advantage compared to Lilly is a seemingly "cheap valuation" trap. Honestly, there are no other highlights.
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Summary: Investing really is about making money within your circle of competence. When I initially bought this company, I didn't understand it well, I just thought it had fallen a lot and was relatively safe. But after some simple research, I found it's completely reasonable that the stock price has fallen so much and hasn't recovered. The market is indeed never wrong. I want to ask everyone here, do you really understand the issues I mentioned above? And I've only scratched the surface of the entire weight loss market.
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