$Microsoft(MSFT.US) The main issue now is not the cloud, but with the impact of AI and the revaluation of SaaS, Microsoft is also classified as a software service provider, and its core business is considered to be impacted by AI. It's the same as Google before, and it's hard to prove otherwise.What should I do? As a left-side enthusiast, I'm definitely adding to my position at 390🐷

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I have a purely immature technical hypothesis:A good company (referring to a growth company or one with stable compound interest), if it can consistently maintain excellence, its stock price should be above the 850-day moving average for the vast majority of the time. Therefore, once the stock price approaches the 850-day moving average, it should be considered a buying opportunity. This applies not only to individual stocks but also to mature, stable, and continuously growing markets, which I roughly wrote about in an earlier article.However, there are two exceptions:1. A company turning from good to bad If a good company's fundamentals deteriorate, it may stay below the 850-day moving average for a long time. In this case, is this line still suitable as a buying reference? This raises questions. For example, Intel or PayPal.2. Cyclical companies Cyclical companies have stable fluctuations. If the fluctuation cycle is short (e.g., two years), the impact might be minimal; but for companies or economies with ultra-long cycles like 5, 7, or even 15 years, this line is no longer applicable.If we further expand our perspective and understand it as a century-long cycle of the world's major economic cycle (similar to the idea of Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates), meaning the post-World War II world economy might be about to complete a full cycle, then a medium-to-long-term business cycle reference like the 850-day moving average would become ineffective.Therefore, how to view large, medium, and small cycles, and how to judge a good company, are the key points in utilizing this technical line.From the current situation:1. Market indices: Whether QQQ or SPY, both are currently far from the 850-day moving average, at very high levels.2. Tech giants: Among the &#34;Mag 7,&#34; Microsoft has recently started to approach the 850-day moving average.We need to think: Is the major cycle of the entire world economy about to undergo significant changes recently? Or, in your research, has Microsoft shown obvious signs of risk shifting from prosperity to decline?If you believe none of this has happened, then Microsoft's current price range between $380 and $400 is definitely a point worth buying.But all these judgments must be based on your comprehensive analysis of the company and the overall market environment. You cannot blindly buy simply because the stock price falls near or below the 850-day moving average, as that will surely lead to losses.