[Zhenzhuo Institution View] MMG (01208.HK): Copper Mine Capacity Expansion Accelerates

$MMG(01208.HK) is at a critical juncture of capacity leap. The Khoemacau expansion project is expected to reach full production in the first quarter of 2028, increasing annual capacity to 130,000 tonnes, with potential for further expansion to 200,000 tonnes. The controlling shareholder has set a macro target of one million tonnes of copper production by 2030, while management is actively seeking high-quality mine acquisition opportunities. The overall strategic deployment is clear, and the path to capacity growth is well-defined.

Financially, unit costs at major mines improved significantly in the second half of 2025, and the offsetting benefits from by-product credits increased. The overall leverage ratio remains around 1x, below the industry average, indicating a robust financial structure. Although Kinsevere recorded an impairment, with continuous improvement in power supply and accelerated production ramp-up, the related risks have been gradually digested, and their impact on overall profitability is becoming limited.

On a macro level, accelerated energy transition and the widespread adoption of electric vehicles continue to drive copper demand growth. On the supply side, constrained by geopolitical risks and tightening environmental approvals, medium- to long-term metal price trends are expected to remain strong. The company has ample cash flow, and its dividend-paying capacity is expected to improve significantly after retained earnings accumulate. Combined with capacity expansion and continuous cost optimization, the overall investment outlook is positive.

Source: KGI Securities