There's been a very interesting phenomenon in the market over the past two days. Tech stocks have been lackluster, but traditional sectors like fertilizers and energy have been exceptionally strong.

Take $CF Industries(CF.US) for example. At its core, it's a nitrogen fertilizer producer. Yet, since the Iran conflict began, its stock price has become one of the biggest gainers in the S&P. Urea prices have recently risen even more than oil prices.

This is essentially a classic case of "supply chain geopolitical trade." The Middle East is a major fertilizer export region. Once logistics get jammed, the global agricultural system is immediately affected.

Furthermore, US natural gas costs are much lower than Europe's, giving US fertilizer plants significant profit flexibility. That's also why capital is now frantically buying companies like $CF Industries(CF.US), $Mosaic(MOS.US), and $Nutrien(NTR.US).

My personal view is:

This wave looks more like a "hard asset rotation," with capital moving out of the volatility in AI and tech and starting to seek certainty.

The question is, how long can this rotation last?