You can't play with expiration day options this big. I've played a lot of options, and I've set strict rules for myself by now:

1- No more expiration day plays. The odds of winning are too low, and there's no time for error. If you're wrong, it's zero.

2- No more small-cap stocks. The trading volume for options on small-cap stocks is too low. With less liquidity, it often happens that the stock price rises but the option price doesn't move because there's no volume. This point is crucial.

3- Now, the strategy for options is becoming more and more like that for the underlying stock: buy calls when the price is low, usually for expiration over a month out; short when the price is high. Usually, if a stock has risen for two consecutive weeks, it's time to go short, buy a two-week put. The odds of winning are high, except for small-cap stocks. Under this strategy, you can average down. The most recent Microsoft single-month call went from -20% at most to +20%, meaning one day's gain was enough. When I usually buy this kind of single-month call, I double the position when the option drops 50%, and if it drops further, I double it again. This way, the cost basis becomes very low. Moreover, after the "Magnificent Seven" finish a market cycle, there's basically a pullback within two weeks. Just catch it.

Longbridge - 福建豁达三哥
福建豁达三哥

$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ.US)$Proshares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ.US)$Proshares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ.US) Good morning. Basically wiped out, sold the remaining $20k, and at one o'clock, I fell asleep as soon as my head hit the pillow. So someone might ask, you've already lost $200k, why not keep the remaining $20k to gamble a bit, what if it comes back? I really don't need that $20k. Sunk cost! A loss is a loss. The probability of it coming back later is basically zero, maybe 2%, or 5%, etc. Also, I'm absolutely not adding to my position to gamble. The market is always right, the mistake is always your own. Every wrong step is reflected in the state of losing money. You're losing money and you still want to add to your position, and you can't bear to cut your losses. I lost $230k down to $20k and I still cut my losses. Opportunities are always there. You act on impulse and go all in, then blame your bad luck, and still fantasize about how great it would be if the all-in position went up. You can win 99 times, but if you lose once, it's over. Then you're back to being suicidal, feeling life is really tiring, and that the whole world is picking on you? You don't study seriously, before you buy or deposit money, you don't consider all the worst-case scenarios, you only think about what if I get rich, what if I multiply my money, fantasizing about buying luxury cars, mansions. You just don't think about what would happen if I lost everything. Still thinking about where I can get more money to recoup my losses, not thinking about what to do if I lose the last bit of money. Making money means luxury cars, mansions, beautiful women, losing money means I jump off a building? This kind of person doesn't deserve sympathy, because the final outcome was predetermined long ago, it's just a matter of sooner or later!

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