反向股神
2026.03.13 18:30

$Meta Platforms(META.US)avocado is a piece of crap, that's all I can say. With Meta's current internal R&D state, they can't produce anything decent. Don't be fooled into a corner.

Why not bring LeCun back to work on the world model JEPA? There's still a chance to overtake on the curve. Stay away from LLMs. Just like Apple, it's better to use others' for now.

Announce giving up on self-developed LLMs now, and the stock price will take off immediately.

Longbridge - 反向股神
反向股神

$Meta Platforms(META.US)Many people think Meta is the cheapest among the M7 now, but I really don't think so. No matter what model you use to calculate Meta's valuation, under very optimistic conditions, the stock price could be calculated at 700-750. Under normal circumstances, it's 550-600, and slightly pessimistic scenarios would be 400-500. The biggest problem is its single business, high CapEx, and uncertain returns on AI investments. I am pessimistic about what AI products the cyber slave master Alex Wang can come up with, especially in a company like Meta, which is internally chaotic and full of infighting. (You don't even need to be an insider—just listen to the latest episode of Silicon Valley 101 to hear about some management issues.)

If we're really talking about the cheapest among the giants, considering CapEx, debt, cash flow, growth potential, or risk equity, the cheapest is still Google, even though Google has already surged. If we're talking about stable growth, Da Zi is still the main focus for now and the next few years. In terms of moats, Apple and Microsoft's ecosystems are irreplaceable. If you're looking for excitement and want to bet on a double, Tesla has enormous potential, and Musk is a safer bet than Zuckerberg.

I really can't find a reason to invest in Meta. Don't argue—if you do, you're right.

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