$1 trillion. Jensen Huang doubled the number, does the market believe it?
NVIDIA's CEO gave a number today: $1 trillion — AI chip demand has doubled. Meanwhile, oil prices plunged 5%, and U.S. stocks rose across the board for the first time in three weeks. But NVIDIA itself rose less than 2%. This contrast hides the most important investment signal of the week. The next three minutes will help you figure out whether to act now.
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What did Jensen Huang say today?
NVIDIA's most important annual conference is called GTC (GPU Technology Conference), which opened today in San Jose. CEO Jensen Huang was on stage for over two hours, and the core message was just one sentence:
"Last year I said AI chip demand was $500 billion. Today I'm telling you, by 2027, it's at least $1 trillion."
From $500 billion to $1 trillion, doubling in a year. And he added: "In fact, we will be supply-constrained."
On the same day, AI cloud computing company Nebius announced a five-year, $27 billion contract with Meta (Facebook's parent company) for Meta to use NVIDIA's latest Vera Rubin chips. Nebius's stock rose 13% today.
What it means for you: The $1 trillion isn't just a pie-in-the-sky promise from Jensen Huang. Last week's $553 billion order backlog at Oracle and today's $27 billion Meta contract with Nebius — these are numbers backed by real money from downstream customers. If you've been wondering whether AI is 'really a bubble,' the current chain of evidence is the strongest yet.
Oil prices finally fell — what happened?
WTI crude oil (the U.S. benchmark) fell nearly 5% today, from around $99 last Friday to about $93. Brent crude (the global benchmark) fell from $103 to around $98. This is the first significant drop in oil prices in weeks.
The reason: After the U.S. military bombed Iran's Harg Island last Friday, Iran has not escalated its retaliation for now. Trump also said he would soon announce the list of countries in a 'convoy alliance,' giving the market hope that the Strait of Hormuz (which handles about 20% of global oil shipments) might reopen.
But the U.S. Energy Secretary was blunt over the weekend: The conflict could 'last for several more weeks,' and the Strait is still not safe.
What it means for you: Oil fell today because there was 'no new bad news,' not because the situation improved. If you hold energy stocks, this is still only suitable for intraday, ultra-short-term trades — don't hold overnight. A single tweet can send prices up or down $10. If you hold stocks in high-fuel-consumption industries like airlines or cruise lines, today's drop doesn't mean the risk is gone.
U.S. stocks rebounded broadly, but don't rush in yet
All 11 sectors of the S&P 500 rose today, with the Dow up 387 points and the Nasdaq up 1.22%. The VIX fear index (a measure of expected market volatility; higher means more fear) plunged 13% from over 27 to below 24. The three-week losing streak has finally ended.
The semiconductor sector ETF SMH rose about 1.8% to lead gains, while the energy sector ETF XLE fell about 0.5%, the only declining sector — money continues to flow from oil price panic toward AI certainty.
But one number is worth thinking about: NVIDIA rose less than 2% today. 93% of Wall Street analysts have a Buy rating, with an average price target of $267–$273. The current price is around $183, implying over 45% upside potential. The GTC speech already exceeded expectations. Why such a small gain?
Because there's another super-event on Wednesday: the FOMC Fed meeting. (The Fed = the U.S. central bank; FOMC = the meeting that sets interest rate policy.)
What it means for you: The market is waiting for Powell's (the Fed Chair, whose term ends in May) stance on Wednesday before it truly commits. If he is dovish on inflation, it means rate cuts are still possible, and the tech stock rebound could last for weeks. If he is hawkish, today's rebound could be short-lived. Before Wednesday's outcome, it's not advisable to make heavy bets in any direction.
So what should I do this week?
AI computing power — GTC has confirmed the direction: $1 trillion demand, Groq 3 inference chips shipping in Q3, Nebius×Meta $27 billion. Certainty is at its highest in months. But the entry timing depends on Wednesday's FOMC. The VIX just returned to the critical 24 level. If it can drop below 20 after the FOMC, that's a good window to gradually build positions.
Energy — Intraday trades only, absolutely no overnight holds. This call hasn't changed since March 12.
Gold — Down slightly about 1% today, pressured by a strong dollar. But the safe-haven logic remains unchanged; pullbacks are allocation opportunities.
Cash — Remains your best option. Wednesday is the week's super-fork, with vastly different outcomes for dovish vs. hawkish directions. Having dry powder gives you optionality.
Do you think NVIDIA's $1 trillion prediction is credible? What's your plan after Wednesday's FOMC? Let's discuss in the comments.
Disclaimer: The above is personal opinion sharing and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks; invest with caution.
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