On March 16, in a lengthy post published on X, Dalio stated that the outcome of the struggle over the Strait of Hormuz will determine the global power structure and is an "ultimate decisive battle":

If Iran retains control over navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, or even just possesses the ability to negotiate by threatening to blockade the strait, the United States will be seen as having lost this war. Conversely, if the U.S. can ensure freedom of navigation in the strait and weaken Iran's threat, it will strengthen America's global leadership position.

Historically, when a dominant power reveals an inability to maintain order in the competition for a key trade route, global capital, allies, and political forces often quickly realign. On the other hand, if President Trump can demonstrate the capability he has promised—by winning this war through ensuring free passage of the Strait of Hormuz and eliminating Iran's threat to its neighbors and the world—this will greatly boost external confidence in him and in American power.

The above outcome will directly affect the alignment of other powers, confidence in the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt, and subsequently influence the trends of capital and trade flows over the long cycle.$iShares barclays 20+ Yr Treasury Bd(TLT.US)$CNOOC(00883.HK)