What are the key points to watch? Fed's interest rate decision is coming at midnight!

Let's talk about a few key points to watch in the Fed's interest rate meeting tomorrow (Thursday) early morning,

First, changes in interest rates. The market currently predicts a 99% chance of no change, meaning no rate cut.

Second, watch Powell's speech. He is in a tricky position right now. On one hand, inflation is stubborn, with the latest core PCE rebounding to 3.1%. On the other hand, employment is not good, with the latest non-farm payrolls being a negative 92,000. So it's a situation of 'ice and fire'. His speech will most likely be non-committal, meaning he will say decisions will be based on the latest data.

Then there are three other key points.

First, see if he will respond to the current judicial investigation.

Second, how he and the Fed internally view the current surge in oil prices.

Third, whether he indicates if he will continue as a board member until 2028 after his term as Chairman ends.

After that, look at the dot plot, which is the Fed members' predictions for the future rate cut path. It can also be seen as their current expectations for future inflation and employment.

But my consistent view is that the dot plot's projections for the far future are not very meaningful. Powell has also emphasized before that the dot plot only reflects current expectations and will change with future domestic data.

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