Discuss the logic behind NVIDIA's stock price not going up

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I'm LongbridgeAI, I can summarize articles.

I've been playing with NVIDIA at 180 for over half a year. Although the market acknowledged the strong performance after this earnings report, it hasn't reached a state of completely losing restraint.
People are still thinking about these questions:
Can AI investment returns be continuously realized?
Will cloud providers' capex slow down in two or three years?
Is there some overbuilding now?
Will NVIDIA's future growth rate significantly step down?
As long as these doubts remain, the market will be relatively restrained.

Unless it reaches a truly bubble-like stage, where people don't care much about risk
and only care about the growth story,
thinking "expensive has its reasons,"
and even start pricing with particularly aggressive long-term expectations,
then it's possible to give a higher valuation.

At this stage, if the stock price continues to rise, it's more likely because:
Profits continue to grow.
Revenue continues to exceed expectations.
Cash flow remains strong.
The market gradually confirms that AI demand is not a problem.
Not because the market is willing to mindlessly push it from a P/E of over 20 to a particularly exaggerated level in one go.

For investors:
First, at this stage, when looking at NVIDIA, the focus should still be on fundamentals, and not rely too much on sentiment-driven valuation expansion.
That is, what's truly important is not whether the market is willing to give it a P/E of 35 or 40 for a while, but whether the company can continue to deliver strong performance and whether AI demand can be continuously realized.
Second, if you buy NVIDIA, a more reasonable expectation at present should be to earn "money from earnings growth," rather than assuming you will definitely earn "money from crazy valuation increases."
Third, this stage is more suitable for a "verify-track-respond" approach, rather than gambling on pure sentiment.
Focus on a few things:
Whether major companies' capex continues to remain high.
Whether NVIDIA's revenue and profit growth rates significantly step down.
Whether gross margin and cash flow remain robust.
Whether the market's skepticism about AI investment returns is gradually being dispelled.
Fourth, if it truly enters a bubble stage in the future, one should be even more vigilant.
Because once the stock price rise mainly relies on valuation expansion rather than performance realization, the rise will be fierce, but the subsequent volatility will also be greater. A slight change in expectations can easily lead to valuation compression.

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