Weekend market hot topics

$Shanghai Composite Index sh000001$ The market has been consolidating at a high level for several consecutive days, moving sideways without a clear direction, grinding up and down. I originally held onto some hope for stabilization, but this week it completely broke down, turned around and plunged. The weekly chart directly formed a medium bearish candlestick with shrinking volume. A decline on shrinking volume is the most agonizing; this clearly indicates that there is simply no capital willing to enter the market to buy the dip. Capital inside the market is fleeing, and capital outside the market is also watching, with absolutely no buying support.

This week, many retail investors saw the profits they painstakingly accumulated over an entire year wiped out in just five short days. Some even lost the money they made last year and started eating into their principal. The more you think about it, the more upsetting it is. But there's no way around it; that's just how the stock market is. Ups and downs are all part of the cycle, just like life. Where there are peaks, there must be valleys, and no one can avoid it.

Out of the 15 trading days this month, only 3 days saw the number of advancing stocks across both markets exceed 3600. The remaining 12 full days were all broad declines, falling endlessly. Among them, 4 days were even more exaggerated, with the number of declining stocks directly hitting over 4500. So, it's normal not to have made money this month. Everyone is losing money, so in a way, it's not a loss, haha... Just get through it. There will be bread. The money lost will eventually be earned back slowly.

If these words still don't comfort you, then think about it from another angle. We lost money in the stock market, but we gained solid experience. The pitfalls we stepped into and the losses we suffered will become our skills for avoiding them in the future. Don't lose heart, and don't give up easily. As long as you maintain your composure, find the right method, and persevere, you will eventually find your own way to make money in the stock market. Thinking about it this way, do you feel a bit better?

Actually, I mentioned it a long time ago: focus closely on the key level of 4002 points. Once this level is broken, the market will form a standard double-top pattern. According to the theoretical decline of a double-top pattern, the market is likely to head towards the 3800-point area.

Now, let's look at the weekend's hot news:

1. A pile of negative news in the evening, external situations causing anxiety

These past two days, external news has been all negative, one piece after another, each affecting the stock market:

1. US defense officials have already made the plan to deploy ground troops to Iran extremely detailed, just waiting for subsequent implementation.

2. Market traders directly predicted that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates before October has risen directly to 50%. This probability is really not low.

3. Trump is still considering either directly occupying or directly blockading Iran's Kharg Island.

To put it bluntly, the US-Iran standoff has escalated step by step, from the initial aircraft carrier standoff and blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, to targeting Iran's Kharg Island oil industry, and now directly considering sending ground troops, entering the most dangerous third phase. Impacted by this news, international oil prices surged again last night. However, spot gold directly fell by 3.43%, and spot silver fell even more sharply by 6.89%. The precious metals market is extremely volatile.

Let's focus on the Fed rate hike. Previously, the market generally predicted the Fed would cut rates twice in 2026. Now, the wind has completely reversed, from rate cuts to hikes. This major shift in expectations is a substantial negative for global stock markets, and A-shares are inevitably affected.

Fortunately, there was a reversal news early in the morning. Trump stated he is considering gradually de-escalating military actions against Iran. Brent crude oil plunged in late trading. This leaves some room for reversal in the weekend news, depending on whether the situation can continue to ease over the weekend.

2. The first humanoid robotics company's IPO accepted, sector may see a rebound opportunity

The Shanghai Stock Exchange just accepted the STAR Market IPO application of Unitree Robotics. The company plans to raise 4.202 billion yuan, claiming to be the first humanoid robotics stock on the A-share market. Although it didn't take a special green channel, the listing process is moving very fast. Barring any surprises, it should be officially listed before August.

For the market, this is a positive for the humanoid robotics sector, mainly benefiting its core suppliers and related invested companies. This humanoid robotics sector has been adjusting for a long time and has fallen quite sufficiently. It remains to be seen if it can stage a decent rebound next week on the back of this news.

3. US stocks fell for four consecutive weeks, putting pressure on related A-share sectors

Overnight, the three major US stock indices closed lower collectively, and the declines were not small: the Dow fell 0.96%, the Nasdaq fell over 2%, and the S&P 500 fell 1.51%. More importantly, the three major US indices have closed lower for four consecutive weeks, setting the longest weekly losing streak record since March 2025. The external market sentiment is particularly poor.

The main sectors leading the decline in US stocks this time were optical communications and memory chips. Next week, these two related sectors in A-shares will likely face pressure. Friends holding these stocks should pay more attention to the risks.

Finally, a summary of the outlook: If the weekend news doesn't show significant improvement and there's no positive news to offset it, the market will have to look for support near the 3900-point level next week.