
The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive time, with rate cut expectations suppressed by inflation and geopolitical risks.

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Hello, fellow investors, what important changes occurred in the market last week? Let's take a look together:
Last week, the US core focus was the Federal Reserve's March interest rate meeting, while also paying attention to inflation and economic forecast adjustments, as well as the issue of Powell's tenure. The Fed announced that it would maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%, marking the second consecutive hold this year. Among the 12 FOMC members, 11 supported the decision, with only one advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut. Members who previously opposed pausing rate cuts have now shifted to supporting the hold. The meeting emphasized the uncertainty of the impact of Middle East geopolitical conflicts, and the transmission of high oil prices to inflation needs continuous observation. At the same time, the 2026 PCE inflation forecast was raised to 2.7%, GDP growth was slightly raised to 2.4%, and the unemployment rate was kept unchanged at 4.4%. The dot plot shows that officials' disagreements are converging towards fewer rate cuts, with the median projecting one rate cut this year, leading to a decline in market rate cut expectations. Additionally, Powell clearly stated that he has no intention of leaving the Federal Reserve Board before the investigation is completed. If the nomination of a new chair is not confirmed in time, he will serve as interim chair, and his personal policy guidance role has somewhat diminished.
Last week, China released January-February national economic data, showing a strong start overall with a steady and improving trend. In terms of consumption, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8% year-on-year, with strong support from online consumption, a recovery in catering consumption growth, and continued repair in discretionary consumption. However, auto consumption saw a significant decline. Core retail sales growth, excluding autos and petroleum products, reached 8.9%. In industry, the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.3% year-on-year, with private enterprises leading the growth. High-end manufacturing sectors such as computer and communication equipment, railway, ship, and aerospace equipment showed outstanding growth rates, energy production remained stable, crude oil production shifted from decline to growth, and power production growth accelerated. In terms of investment, national fixed-asset investment increased by 1.8% year-on-year, infrastructure investment growth reached 11.4%, and industrial investment grew by 5.4%. However, private investment declined year-on-year. Real estate development investment saw a narrowing decline, but sales and new construction starts still showed a downward trend. In terms of employment, the average urban surveyed unemployment rate for January-February was 5.3%, unchanged from the same period last year. The youth unemployment rate for those aged 16-24 has declined for six consecutive months, and employment overall remained stable.
In bond market performance, global bond markets continued to decline overall over the past week, with the global aggregate index down 0.14%, the US aggregate index down 0.51%, US investment-grade corporate bonds down 0.27%, and US high-yield corporate bonds down 0.31%. The emerging market US dollar bond aggregate index fell 0.99%, and the Chinese US dollar credit bond index fell 0.39%. In terms of interest rates, US Treasury yields rose overall, with the 2-year US Treasury yield up 18 bps to 3.90% and the 10-year US Treasury yield up 10 bps to 4.38%.
The net asset value of the E Fund (Hong Kong) Select Bond Fund A Class Accumulative USD share is 12.66*. Regarding the recent overall bond market situation, we will continue to deploy targets with high credit quality under low spread conditions, striving to provide more stable returns than the market.
Key economic data releases to focus on this week:
Tuesday: The US will release the preliminary March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI;
Friday: The US will release the March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data.
* Data sourced from E Fund Hong Kong's official website, as of 2026/3/23.
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