
Leading memory manufacturers, spearheaded by Micron, have substantively entered a turning point in valuation logic transition, sharing the same origin as TSMC and NVIDIA.
Long-term agreements and consistently better-than-expected fundamentals have significantly weakened the cyclical nature of the memory sector while greatly strengthening its growth attributes.
The core reason TSMC and NVIDIA achieved a permanent shift in their valuation systems is that they completed a three-step process: "Long-term agreements lock in orders and smooth out cyclical fluctuations → Fundamentals exceed expectations in a stepwise manner → Valuation reconstruction from cyclical stocks to core growth stocks of AI infrastructure." Currently, memory manufacturers like Micron are precisely replicating this path:
1. Long-term agreements have completely restructured the business model, thoroughly breaking the decades-long strong cyclical fate of the memory industry.
2. Fundamentals exceed expectations in a stepwise manner: The profit ceiling has been permanently broken, replicating the growth path of NVIDIA and TSMC.
3. A fundamental shift in valuation logic: From "strong-cycle reverse pricing" to "AI infrastructure growth stock pricing." This is the most crucial qualitative change. The market's pricing logic for the memory industry has already shifted in a direction completely consistent with that of TSMC and NVIDIA in the past.
Institutions have already begun pricing manufacturers like Micron using cross-cycle stable profits and DCF long-term cash flows, sharing the exact same origin in pricing logic as TSMC and NVIDIA. For example, Barclays set a $675 target price for Micron based on 6.3x 2027 EPS, not single-digit P/E at the cycle peak. Future valuations for memory will move towards 20x P/E, and Micron breaking through a trillion-dollar market cap is not far off.$Direxion Daily MU Bull 2X Shares(MUU.US)$XL2CSOPHYNIX(07709.HK)$XL2CSOPSMSN(07747.HK)
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