The market is all red again, what's your outlook for the rest of the week?

Last Friday, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively plummeted. Entering this week, the core conflict remains unchanged: uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz navigation → high oil prices → rising inflation expectations → delayed rate cut expectations → pressure on risk asset valuations. Amid expectations of escalating conflict, U.S. oil futures once again briefly climbed above $100. The market's expectation for the Fed to "cut rates this year" continues to be weakened, and it has even begun pricing in a more hawkish interest rate path.

U.S. Market: Still in "Phase One - Inflation Pricing," Don't Rush to Add Aggressive Positions

Structurally, last Friday's sharp decline was not a one-day sentiment event but a continuation of the "oil price - interest rates - valuation" chain. Reuters noted that the three major indices have fallen below key moving averages (including the 200-day), with tech and high-duration assets suffering greater losses. Meanwhile, bonds have continued to weaken, reflecting the market's repricing of interest rates. In pre-market trading today, as oil prices rose again, futures continued to weaken, and the VIX was also pulled up near a two-week high, indicating that "risk hedging demand" has returned.

My execution criteria for U.S. stocks remain unchanged: first treat this wave as an adjustment/rebound structure. Next, I will only watch for two signals that "the market will provide its own answers":

Whether oil prices retreat from the "high range above $100" to a controllable range and stabilize (otherwise, inflation pricing is difficult to end).
The interaction between the Nasdaq/S&P 500 and the 20-day moving average: previous rebounds have repeatedly touched the 20-day line and then fallen back. If another upward attempt still fails, the rebound looks more like "pressure relief." Only if it can stabilize and spread to more sectors would it signal a change in rhythm.

Hong Kong Market: External Shocks Dominate, Hang Seng/Hang Seng Tech Both Fall; Short-term Focus on Whether Heavyweights Stabilize

Today, Hong Kong stocks followed the typical pattern of "receding risk appetite in external markets." Futu News showed the Hang Seng Index closed down 3.54%; the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 3.11%; and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 3.28%. This decline is more a result of the transmission of external oil price and geopolitical uncertainty, rather than a sudden deterioration in Hong Kong's own fundamentals.

In the short term, I am more concerned about "whether the heavyweights stop falling," as this determines whether the index can stabilize. The South China Morning Post mentioned that during today's session, heavyweight stocks like Alibaba and Tencent fell in sync, directly dragging down the index. For medium-term investors, Hong Kong's advantages remain (relatively friendly valuations and policy environment). However, during the window of "high oil prices + hawkish rate expectations," portfolio structure should lean more defensive: don't chase emotional rebounds, wait for verifiable improvements in external variables (navigation and oil prices) before accelerating.

Key Stocks: Energy as a Hedge, Tech Watches Moving Averages and Expectations, Gold Treated as "Liquidity Shock" for Now

Energy (U.S./HK related): During the oil price uptrend, funds treat energy as a "cash flow asset" for portfolio hedging. The relative strength of energy stocks is a natural choice for the current market. Such assets are suitable as "stabilizers" during volatile periods, but the logic depends on the oil price range. Once navigation resumes and oil prices fall, the elasticity will reverse.

Tech: In last Friday's decline, high-beta names like Nvidia and Tesla saw significant drops, while Microsoft, Alphabet, etc., were also under pressure. This indicates the market is currently prioritizing trading "interest rate sensitivity" over "long-term AI logic."

Gold/Silver: Spot gold once fell below 4100 during the session. Main reasons include: oil prices pushing up inflation expectations, hawkish rate expectations weakening the appeal of non-yielding assets, and passive selling under liquidity pressure. If you add positions every time it drops now, it's easy to max out your position before the structural move is complete.

Conclusion

The market's turning point signal remains the Strait of Hormuz. Until then, the focus should be on defense.$NVIDIA(NVDA.US) $BABA-WR(89988.HK) $TENCENT(00700.HK)