Goldman Sachs interprets "How long will the Iran war last": The market has only traded "inflation" and has not yet traded "recession"

The core variable of this epic crisis is no longer the firepower of the U.S. military, but the navigation timetable of the Strait of Hormuz. Although Trump and his senior officials have recently released optimistic signals to the market that the war will end in "a few weeks," Goldman Sachs believes that Iran's survival game logic, the political dilemma of the U.S. being constrained by control of the strait, the natural ceiling of escort capabilities, and the lack of mediation conditions—all point to one possibility: the duration of the interruption will be longer than the "few weeks" currently implied by market pricing