$TENCENT(00700.HK)$Tencent(TCEHY.US)

At this very moment, both sides of the US-Iran war are on high alert, posting statements on social media that favor their own victory.

The capital markets have already priced in inflation, but have not fully priced in the economic recession that would follow if the war spirals out of control.

As holders of Tencent, the question we should consider is that Tencent's current price reflects both macro conditions (the US-Iran war, Fed interest rate hikes or cuts) and micro conditions (the company's main business and AI progress as reflected in its earnings report). This is the market's reasonable pricing for Tencent under various circumstances.

But is Tencent's valuation already cheap? First, regarding the US-Iran war, because it is unpredictable, long-term investors should not factor it into their considerations. Second, regarding Tencent's AI progress, because Hunyuan 3.0 has not been released yet, we should not make predictions.

Therefore, whether we should buy at this point in time should depend on the state of your assets and your psychological expectation of how long you intend to hold Tencent. To ask a more exaggerated question: if you had "infinite ammo," would you buy Tencent at its current stage?