Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a U.S. economic recession to 30%.

Goldman Sachs stated that due to the surge in oil and natural gas prices, the probability of the U.S. economy falling into a recession within the next 12 months has increased to 30%, a 5 percentage point increase from previous expectations. The energy price shock, combined with tightening financial conditions caused by the Middle East conflict and the gradual fading of the effects of the major tax law passed by President Trump last summer, prompted Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius to raise his baseline forecast for the year-end unemployment rate to 4.6%. Goldman Sachs still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September and December. The bank also expects U.S. GDP growth in the second half of this year to be below trend, with an annualized growth rate projected between 1.25% and 1.75%. Due to the ongoing disruption of energy transportation through the Strait of Hormuz, Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for this year earlier on Monday. The bank said this conflict will push up global inflation and reduce global GDP growth by 0.4 percentage points, but in the worst-case scenario, the impact on GDP could double or even triple.