Even if the war ends immediately, its "aftereffects" will persist for months, potentially affecting the winter in the Northern Hemisphere that year.

In any case, the high-pressure situation in the energy market will run through the entirety of 2026; setting aside short-term market fluctuations, this year's inflation issue certainly cannot be underestimated, and the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond probably won't go back down.

The market outlook this year is not very optimistic. Even if there is a major turning point in the Iran war, we must remain vigilant about the market's "second leg."