$AXT(AXTI.US) I still maintain a 2-layer position in US stocks for now.

Waiting for the macro environment to ease up a bit 🧏🏻‍♀️

A familiar script, which also appeared in last year's trade war negotiations with us. The US applied maximum pressure (raising tariffs on us to 100%+), we fought back fiercely (imposing reciprocal tariffs of 100%+) —> Trump's taco said they were in contact with us, we flatly denied it —> They were really in contact, negotiations began, the market bottomed —> Neither side wanted a hard decoupling, negotiations were finalized —> Trump used the 'winning' narrative to explain it domestically.

Last year's US-China trade war, the underlying logic was that neither side wanted a hard decoupling, so negotiations were ultimately completed.

This year's US-Iran war, Iran's geographical location dictates that the US cannot defeat Iran, and military strength dictates that Iran cannot eliminate the US and Israel, so the final outcome can only be ended through negotiations, just the timing is uncertain.

Last night, Trump's statement revealed his hand; the US hopes to end the Iran war quickly through negotiations. I believe as long as the US ceases fire, Iran has no reason to continue attacking ships in the Strait, otherwise Iran's legitimate act of countering aggression would turn into piracy against the whole world. From Iran's recent friendly remarks about the Strait and neighboring countries, it can be seen that Iran does not wish to be an enemy of the whole world.

But after all, this time there's an extra factor like Israel compared to last year, so the twists and turns will definitely be more complex than last year's US-China trade war. So I'll still maintain a strategy of selling high and buying low, or just hold the 2-layer position.

Relatively speaking, I feel a regional war won't affect the interest rate cut path, but as for those traders on FedWatch pricing in rate hikes this year, that will change with the development of the war situation ~ Go with the flow and observe more 🥸