
Walmart, Procter & Gamble, and Altria are running the "defensive hedge + high dividend" narrative, which is currently self-consistent given the high VIX and widening credit spreads. However, there is a hidden contradiction: when long-term interest rates continue to rise, high-dividend stocks directly compete with Treasury yields, leading to passive compression of valuations—the logic of "buying defense" collapses when interest rates are high enough. Altria also adds an independent regulatory risk variable on top of this.
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