Equipment leaders like ASML, Applied Materials, and Lam Research have high order visibility, but the strong US dollar is suppressing the pace of capital expenditure in non-US regions, casting doubt on the actual order placement speed. The testing demand from Teradyne and the inspection demand from KLA are the real barometers of the cycle's true position, far more credible than macro narratives. There is a divergence between data and stories, and the big beta rally in equipment stocks may not be so smooth ⚠️
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