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Likes ReceivedThe Apple path I wrote almost 2 years ago has basically been realized, though it's been slower than I thought. 🥸@Buffett Beijing Branch
$Apple(AAPL.US)I entered at 170 and have been firmly bullish on Apple. I reduced my position by 20% before WWDC as a hedge, originally planning to buy back below 190 after a couple of days when everyone realized the situation. Unexpectedly, Wall Street reacted so quickly. However, many retail investors still haven't grasped how significant and impactful this WWDC is. Let me share a few long-overdue insights from my articles to explain:
1. As early as May last year, I mentioned that Apple's devices and systems are the strongest entry point or interface for AI, both in terms of quality and quantity (only Apple's system can deeply integrate AI with identical specifications across every iPhone, and it has the largest market share in terms of retained devices).
2. It's not Apple seeking AI; AI will inevitably come to Apple. Just like Microsoft once resisted the internet, but the internet inevitably came to Microsoft. The timing of Apple's AI deployment isn't crucial, but the deployment itself is.
3. Apple's next-gen AI product isn't just about slapping GPT onto Siri or adding a few app features. Instead, it involves deeply embedding multiple AI capabilities into the system with high-level permissions, fundamentally transforming how apps and functions operate on the iPhone.
4. Apple's design will once again set the standard for AI integration in consumer electronics. Once deployed, it will compel other manufacturers to redesign their AI-integrated products following similar standards.
5. iPhone's market share declined last year, but the proportion of retained devices actually increased, indicating most users still prefer iPhones and aren't switching brands—they're just upgrading less frequently than Android users. Once a compelling product arrives, sales won't just rebound; they'll surge with pent-up demand.
6. WWDC largely validated these five hypotheses, signaling Apple's earnings rebound in Q4 and next year, as well as foreshadowing a major transformation in the downstream AI application layer across industries.
7. Optimistically, after iOS 18 and iPhone 16 launch in Q3-Q4, Android and other brands, including Meta, will quickly catch up with AI-to-consumer applications. The era where AI truly impacts daily life and social interactions may arrive in 2025.
8. Once AI begins disrupting lifestyles, combined with Fed rate cuts, earnings for AI-related companies and speculative investments will skyrocket. As retail investors tangibly experience AI's potential, the AI bubble might truly inflate by 2025.
9. Deploy mid/small-cap AI plays in H2.
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