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GOOG Gain HunterFrom Tariffs to Policies: Some Thoughts on the Macro Environment
Recent wars have disrupted U.S. stocks and gold, making things very unsettled. Calming down, I've gathered a lot of information. Looking at tariffs and the crackdown on Iran together, I've clarified some issues.
The core question is: What is war beneficial for? Who are the beneficiaries?
Trump's tariff policy has actually increased the cost and risk of using the U.S. dollar in global trade. This invisibly strengthens the motivation for countries to "de-dollarize," which is also a driving factor behind the gold boom.
When the trade side begins to loosen, the stability of the dollar system is no longer just a financial issue but gradually spills over into geopolitical and energy issues.
Under such a premise, war is not merely a simple political or military choice but more like a structural hedging tool. Through geopolitical pressure, it re-strengthens the dollar's control over another key link: energy.
This brings us back to the core operating logic of the "Petrodollar" system: global oil is priced in dollars, and oil-producing countries then recycle those dollars into U.S. Treasuries and dollar assets, forming a capital loop that supports the dollar's status as the global reserve currency. The operation of this system relies not on market spontaneity but on order conditions.
Looking further, this order is actually built on two key premises:
First, the Middle East energy landscape must be maintained in a state of "controllable instability"—neither collapsing nor completely autonomous.
Second, the U.S. must have security dominance over major oil-producing countries, binding energy and security together.
Therefore, when forces like Iran, which try to promote "de-dollarized settlement," emerge (Iran has even said it wants to collect the Strait's protection fees in RMB), the U.S. suppressing them is not just a geopolitical game but about maintaining the boundary conditions of the entire dollar system.
In other words, tariffs weaken the dollar's "trade foundation," while war strengthens the dollar's "energy anchor."
But the problem lies precisely here: this approach has obvious reflexivity. In the short term, through the re-control of energy and security, dollar demand can indeed be increased. However, in the medium to long term, when financial, trade, and geopolitical tools are repeatedly weaponized, global trust in the dollar system will be eroded instead, potentially accelerating the process of de-dollarization.
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