$Sandisk(SNDK.US)$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Micron Tech(MU.US)$Alphabet(GOOGL.US)

Started being bearish on US stocks since January, and continuously avoided the big drops in February and March.

Standing at the end of March when the monthly candlestick is about to close, I have a few outlooks for the future:

1 The overall market is still far from the bottom; once a trend forms, it takes time to reverse.

2 Even without the Iran war, US stocks need a major adjustment this year.

3 Our generation hasn't experienced a major bear market. During the two big bear markets in US stocks from 1970-1980 and 2000-2010, many stocks didn't rise for a decade. The 2013-2025 bull market made people think that as long as you do value investing, you can definitely get high returns.

4 The overall bull market in recent years led to the emergence of a batch of influencers. Stock gurus are highly sought after. Many of these people are skilled, but they overestimated their own stock-picking ability. In reality, it was the market being good, and they could hold on.

During a bear market, these people will all disappear. Ask them and they won't make a sound. There wasn't even a Longbridge forum in 2022.

5 The biggest advantage of retail investors is one-click liquidation. Institutions have too large positions with many restrictions and must stay in the market. The advantage of institutions is quantitative capability. What's most suitable for retail investors is swing trading, not holding on stubbornly. You're using your biggest disadvantage to fight the biggest advantage of institutions. What are the odds of winning?

6 Since we're talking about swing trading, it's nothing more than going long and short. Shorting has always been looked down upon, which is a misconception in itself. In a bear market, the win rate of shorting is naturally higher than going long. Bear markets have many rebounds, but each time there's a sharp surge (like the TACO pump this Monday), the remaining four or five days see brutal declines/gradual slides. Bull markets are the opposite, with occasional crashes, and each crash is followed by continuous rises.

7 First, you must accept the fact that it's a bear market now to make money.

8 This year's market trend is the Fire Horse year, with high volatility. Due to the political needs of Trump's midterm election, the stock market will inevitably be pumped to around 7300 points from May to August (the midterm election is in November). The Iran war created a big pit. Currently, this pit doesn't look lower than 6140, with the extreme possibly filling the SPX weekly gap at 5786.

9 Since there was no rebound from Monday's TACO high of 6650 to Friday's low of 6368, and RSI is extremely oversold (reasons see previous article), there is a technical need for a rebound next week, with a lower limit of 6140 and a rebound high around 6480, possibly even above 6500 if good. Especially with Tuesday's monthly close, there is a need for a rebound.

10 April will continue to fall because no matter how Trump TACOs, this is a bilateral relationship. Iran's toughness exceeded his imagination. Every time a rebound pumps it higher is a good shorting point.

11 Individual Stocks

1) NVDA 166 is a good price, with the extreme low seen at 150. Buy on dips within this range.

2) META is highly likely to enter the 450-500 range, which is a good price range.

3) GOOGL 250-263 range, the technical picture will only be complete after filling the gap at 263.

4) TSLA 498-320 one-way drop, sold at 490 and haven't touched it since, 320-350 is considered a good price.

5) Not touching Amazon, 200 is actually considered a good price.

6) MSFT one-way drop, there is support here at the previous low of 342.

7) SNDK highly likely to break below 500, fluctuation range 450-780, can only go short long-term and long short-term, short when it pumps, if going long, take profits when good.

8) LITE has relatively strong momentum, the main force is very strong.

Sometimes when sentiment is very poor, the stock price can also be lower than its intrinsic value.