The non-ferrous metals ETF Huifu (159652) experienced a significant unusual movement, with its constituent stock Tianshan Aluminum reporting positive earnings guidance and hitting the daily limit up.
On March 30, the non-ferrous metals sector surged significantly, with international aluminum prices rising sharply. Tianshan Aluminum Group hit the daily price limit, while Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. and Nanshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. both rose over 7%. Aluminum Corporation of China and Huafon Aluminum Co., Ltd. gained over 5%. In terms of popular ETFs, as of 9:50, the Non-ferrous Metals ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) rose 0.41%, with a trading volume close to 50 million yuan, indicating active capital flow. The fund has gained 28.82% over the past six months and 80.97% over the past year, demonstrating outstanding past performance.
The Non-ferrous Metals ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) continues to attract capital inflows. As of the previous trading day, the fund recorded a net inflow of 288 million yuan over the past three months, 1.825 billion yuan over the past six months, and 3.251 billion yuan over the past year.
On the news front, two large aluminum plants in the Gulf countries of Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates recently confirmed attacks by Iran. Aluminum products exported from the Middle East account for about 10% of global supply, which may have a certain impact on the market. Bahrain's Aluminium Company (Alba) previously declared "force majeure" due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, reducing production by about 20%. Since the outbreak of the latest US-Iran conflict on February 28, the LME aluminum price once surged to $3,546.5 per ton, hitting a nearly four-year high.
Furthermore, Tianshan Aluminum Group's latest earnings forecast shows an estimated net profit of 2.2 billion yuan for the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 107.92%.
CITIC Securities' research report stated that the resurgence of the Iran-Israel conflict has significantly increased risks to aluminum production capacity, shipping capabilities, and energy supply in the Middle East region. Subsequent disruptions to the Middle East's aluminum industry chain and even the risk of a secondary overseas energy crisis cannot be ignored. Reviewing the 2021-2022 energy crisis, the maximum increase in aluminum prices and the sector reached 60%/100%. Looking ahead, rising concerns about supply in the aluminum industry chain may lead to price increases exceeding previous expectations. Coupled with the strong medium- to long-term supply-demand logic of the aluminum industry, the outlook for a simultaneous rise in both price and valuation of the aluminum sector remains positive.
The Non-ferrous Metals ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) focuses on core varieties with both strategic value and supply-demand gaps, such as copper, gold, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths. It has a high concentration of leading companies and leads its peers.
Currently, the allocation value of the entire non-ferrous metals sector is prominent, benefiting from multiple positive factors such as "supply-side contraction policies, demand-side new quality momentum, economic cycle resonance, global deflation expectations, and the US dollar credit crisis." If you are bullish on future investment opportunities in precious metals and bulk industrial metals, look for the leading, larger-scale Non-ferrous Metals ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) with higher "gold and copper content," and its off-exchange feeder funds (Class A: 019164; Class C: 019165).
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